The voters of Jean-Talon had warned, upon arriving at the polling stations in this Quebec constituency on Monday, that they wanted to send a message to the government of François Legault. The warning turned out to be a thaw that left the Quebec premier stunned. The pandemic era, where any admitted fault was immediately forgiven, is well and truly over.
The caveats that accompany any by-election remain in place: it is an isolated election, three years before a general election, which allows a government to be sanctioned without overthrowing it.
Jean-Talon’s verdict, however, is nevertheless scathing. Not only was the Coalition Avenir Québec overtaken by the Parti Québécois (in a riding that the PQ had never won), but the winning PQ candidate, Pascal Paradis, collected more votes (over 11,300 ) that the caquiste Joëlle Boutin a year ago. And this, with a more than respectable participation rate, although lower than in October 2022 (55%, compared to 74%).
The signal could not have been clearer. François Legault’s reaction was a little less so.
It must be said that the Prime Minister was not used to such electoral rebuffs. Governing without a pandemic crisis, however, now brings its share of decisions that must then be made. Among the lot, the unexpected abandonment of the third motorway link is no exception, Mr. Legault having lost his Teflon. The hasty departure of his MP Boutin at the very start of his second term did not help either.
“There is no question of losing Quebec definitively,” the Prime Minister decided on Tuesday. His solution? Resuscitate the specter of a third road link, if this is the will of the population of the national capital whose confidence has been shaken. Here is an illogic which will be of an Olympic order if it materializes: denying one’s own decision to bury the third link in an attempt to make people forget this first disavowal. Even the Minister of the Economy, Pierre Fitzgibbon, who had not heard of it until then, seemed to have difficulty following.
The other surprise was the scale of the PQ’s victory, which the polls placed at best, before the vote, neck and neck with the CAQ. The leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, can congratulate himself on having succeeded in making the independence party another option in the face of the government. It’s quite a turnaround, after many thought he was dead a year ago.
The internal poll skillfully brandished by the PQ at the start of the race will have contributed to this. The exchanges leaked by the CAQ with its candidate Pascal Paradis also portrayed this fight as a two-person race. The tone was set, the PQ cemented it.
The PQ leader will now have to consolidate Monday’s protest vote into a vote of confidence in his party, under fire from renewed criticism and attention. The first test will come in two weeks, with the presentation of the budget for a sovereign Quebec – which the PQ had preferred to delay so as not to deviate the partial vote in Jean-Talon. The heart of its social project cannot be avoided indefinitely. If it wants to complete its reconstruction, the PQ will have to make sure to still rally voters when it puts it forward again.
On the side of Québec solidaire, which found itself relegated to third place by winning only half of the votes collected last year, Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois blamed the electoral decline on the generational wall which he still faces after years . Obviously, the co-spokesperson himself feels that he is not reaching a certain electorate. But the party’s procrastination regarding the MPs’ salary increase, then the refusal of QS to show solidarity by in turn ignoring Meta’s platforms to broadcast advertising – finally corrected for a day – , probably also have something to do with it. It is not only the Caquists who deserve to be criticized for the inconsistency of their positions.
The Liberal Party of Quebec, of which Jean-Talon was still a stronghold barely three years ago, continues its collapse. Interim leader Marc Tanguay — who, in a burst of candor, conceded that it is no longer behind the PLQ that the protest vote against the CAQ wants to turn — persists in banking his hopes of resurrection on the leadership race party. Monday’s devastating result, however, will do nothing to help the Liberal authorities’ recruitment efforts. It must be said that it is not easy to convince voters and saviors to endorse the ideas of a party in the midst of an identity crisis.
The next Quebec election is still a long way away, and electoral dynamics have time to change. But in the coming months, each party would benefit from rediscovering its beliefs that had been left aside — and respecting them from now on.