After the attack on Donald Trump, Joe Biden forced to moderate his speech while remaining offensive

Offensive, but not too much. This is the balancing act that Joe Biden must now maintain in the race for the White House. His opponent for the American presidential election, Donald Trump, was officially nominated as the Republican candidate at the party’s national convention on Monday, July 15, in Milwaukee, Wisconsin (United States). The undisputed – and now uncontested – leader of the conservatives will deliver a speech on Thursday evening to close the event, five days after surviving an assassination attempt that left him with a bandage on his right ear.

This attack on Donald Trump will significantly complicate his opponent’s campaign. Joe Biden’s strategy until now has been to present the billionaire as a danger to American democracy. But, in a matter of seconds, the Republican went Saturday “from instigator of political violence to victim of it”summarizes the New York Times. In these conditions, it is difficult to maintain the same hard line.

Especially since Republicans quickly began to make this assassination attempt a campaign argument. Several party officials, including the Republican candidate’s new running mate, JD Vance, accused Joe Biden and his supporters of having a share of responsibility in the attack. “They claimed that the Democrats’ rhetoric, which portrays Donald Trump as a threat to democracy, contributed to the assassination attempt,” “We are very happy with this,” says Hans Noel, professor of public affairs at Georgetown University (USA).

“Now, Joe Biden and the Democrats will be accused of encouraging this type of violence if they make the election a stake for the future of the Democrats. Whether or not that accusation is true, the Democrats will probably be more cautious.”

Hans Noel, political scientist

to franceinfo

This was quickly confirmed. As early as Saturday, in the hours following the attack, Joe Biden’s team suspended several television spots that criticized Donald Trump, reports Reuters. All external communication was put on hold. And the Democratic candidate also softened his remarks. “We “We must unite as a nation”the head of state pleaded on Sunday, during a televised speech from the Oval Office.

After the attack that shocked the country, “The president is trying to lower the temperature”a campaign official told Reuters. The Democrat went so far as to acknowledge in an interview with NBC News on Monday night that he had been subjected to a “error” by calling for “target” Donald Trump in a phone call with donors in early July. “I meant focus on him, on what he does, on his measures, the number of lies he told during the debate,” justified Joe Biden.

If the watchword is appeasement, the criticisms against the Republican candidate have not died down. They have only become more subtle. “In his statement from the Oval Office, Joe Biden spoke again about the assault on the Capitol”when Donald Trump supporters tried to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election, observes Ludivine Gilli, historian and director of the North America Observatory at the Jean-Jaurès Foundation.

On Monday, the Democratic president also told NBC that he was not “not the one who said he wanted to be a dictator on day one” of his mandate, in reference to an outburst by his opponent. “He’s going to continue to talk about what’s at stake in this election.” And “reject the extreme project of the Republicans”Joe Biden’s campaign manager confirmed, quoted by Politico. According to CBS News, the Democrats’ rallies, fundraising text messages and advertising spots have already resumed.

The “pause” in the campaign therefore lasted less than a week. For the moment, it remains difficult to openly attack a candidate who “appears in victim”concedes Ludivine Gilli. “But the more time passes, the easier it is for Democrats to point out that there were facts, speeches calling for violence in Donald Trump’s camp.”

“If Democrats tied their hands behind their backs and didn’t talk about it, they would lose the election for sure.”

Ludivine Gilli, historian

to franceinfo

While waiting to have their hands free again, Democrats have found another target: Senator JD Vance, who has just been designated as Donald Trump’s running mate and vice-presidential candidate. As soon as his inauguration was announced, Joe Biden’s team declared that this former critic of the billionaire, who has become his staunch ally, had been chosen “because he (…) would bend over backwards to leave the field open to Trump and his extreme program”.

“It’s not really possible to pause a campaign that’s in full swing, but Democrats can refrain from some attacks on Donald Trump, decrypts Hans Noel. JD Vance allows them to focus on someone else, saving [l’ex-président] for the moment.”

In any case, the Democrats have no choice but to continue to be offensive, judges Ludivine Gilli. Because Donald Trump emerged from this assassination attempt strengthened politically. “The Republican’s images of the bloody cheekwith raised fists, are very strong on a symbolic level.analyzes the historian. First, because it is a presidential candidate who is being targeted, which arouses emotion and compassion beyond political divisions.”. Then, because these photos show a Donald Trump “who gets up and seems extremely vigorous”in a period when his opponent – ​​only three years older – is “criticized for his frail appearance” and aging.

“This photo fits with the message of Trump’s campaign, which presents him as a strong leader who will defend America“, Hans Noel agrees. In the political scientist’s opinion, “It is too early to know whether this will have a major effect” on the billionaire’s chances of returning to the White House, “but he seems to benefit from it” for the moment.

“Despite the emotion that currently dominates the country, the United States remains very polarized, with two clearly formed camps: Democratic voters are not going to support the candidacy [républicaine] after this event”nuances Ludivine Gilli. Likewise, the support of the Republican base for its champion “is already solid.” “In a fractured country, this assassination attempt will strengthen positions”the historian says, but perhaps not change the course of the campaign.

The media attention paid to Donald Trump, however, has its advantages for Joe Biden. Since his disastrous performance during a debate in June, the oldest American president has been mired in a controversy over his age and his ability to govern the country for four more years. A subject quickly abandoned by the media after the assassination attempt against his opponent. “The uncertainties surrounding the Democratic candidate have almost been forgotten, even if party members continue to discuss them internally.”notes Ludivine Gilli.

Calls for Joe Biden to step down, launched by several Democratic leaders and public figures, have fallen silent for now. “It’s really complicated to have this discussion publicly. [La tentative d’assassinat] “overshadows everything right now”a Democratic strategist told NBC News. “The attempt to unseat Biden is likely to end there. He’s not going to step down voluntarily. He’s proven he’s going to fight,” believes an ally of the president, also interviewed by the American channel. The Democrat showed a more assured image during his televised address on Sunday.

“With this rare intervention from the Oval Office, Joe Biden presented himself as a head of state who addresses the people. He reacted as a president, by putting himself back at the center of the political game.”

Ludivine Gilli, historian

to franceinfo

The media sequence, now focused on the Republican convention, offers Joe Biden some respite. And this time is precious: the Democratic Party has planned to officially invest its candidate during a videoconference vote that could take place in early August, two weeks before the national convention, relays NPR radio. “Until then, every day that passes [où on ne parle pas de son âge] “It’s a day won for Joe Biden”insists Ludivine Gilli.

But the lull may be short-lived. On Wednesday, House Representative Adam Schiff became the highest-ranking Democrat to call on Joe Biden to step down. In an interview with BET on Tuesday, the outgoing president said he would step down “if a medical problem arose”. He resumed his field campaign.and his speeches will be scrutinized again. “In recent weeks, we have seen repeated errors and slips of the tongue” from the octogenarian, recalls Ludivine Gilli. “At the slightest problem, the subject of his age will become predominant again in the media and on social networks.”