“The Islamic State is now capable of launching attacks remotely.” For Gérald Darmanin, the terrorist threat in France is once again “exogenous” : she also comes “from the outside, like the Bataclan”. With these words, spoken Monday March 25 on the 8 p.m. set of France 2, the Minister of the Interior brought back the specter of the deadly attacks of November 13, 2015, when an armed commando from the Islamic State group, some members of which were French, had come from Syria to strike Paris and Saint-Denis.
In fact, on Sunday evening, two days after the attack perpetrated in a concert hall in the suburbs of Moscow, claimed by a branch of ISIS, the Islamic State of Khorasan (EI-K), the executive decided to raise the Vigipirate plan to its maximum level. “The Islamist terrorist threat is real, it is strong” And “she never faltered”declared the Prime Minister, Gabriel Attal, during a trip to Saint-Lazare station, in Paris, Monday afternoon, before driving the point home in front of the deputies.
“We have to prepare for all scenarios, rule out none. We have to be everywhere and all the time.”
Gabriel Attal, Prime Ministerin the National Assembly
To take a precise assessment of the state of the terrorist threat in France, the Minister of the Interior has planned a meeting for Thursday with the General Directorate of Internal Security (DGSI) and the services concerned. According to Gérald Darmanin, this “threat” East “very high” And “affects all of Europe and the whole of the West”far beyond Russia.
An attack foiled in France linked to EI-K
Should we fear, in France, an attack prepared from areas controlled by EI-K? In its latest report on the threat posed by the Islamic State, the UN confirms that this branch “seeks to carry out violent attacks in Western countries”. For his part, Emmanuel Macron revealed on Monday that this branch had “conducted several attempts in recent months” of attacks “on our own soil”. According to Jenny Raflik, professor of contemporary history at the University of Nantes and author of Terrorism in France, a history, 19th-21st centuryEI-K is the branch of EI “most active today” and the one who has “international ambitions”.
At this stage, according to our information, there is only one legal procedure underway in France concerning a foiled attack likely to be linked to EI-K. It was instigated by two men, one Russian, the other Tajik, arrested in Strasbourg in November 2022. The first investigations confirmed their links with the Central Asian and Caucasian branches of IS, according to the Prosecutor’s Office national anti-terrorist movement, which has not stopped, for eighteen months, “to recall the seriousness of the terrorist threat emanating from networks composed of original individuals” of these areas.
On the other hand, no successful action has been remotely guided by EI-K in France. If Armand Rajabpour-Miyandoab, the author of the attack on the Bir-Hakeim bridge, in Paris, on December 2, 2023, mentioned “his brothers of Khorasan” in his protest video, “we cannot say, given the state of the investigations, that this attack was ordered by EI-K, nor committed in the name of EI-K,” observes from franceinfo a source close to the file, linking this mention to the Iranian origins of the attacker – Khorasan is the medieval name of Afghanistan, which included northern Iran.
A primarily internal threat
For Alexandre Rodde, security consultant and researcher specializing in terrorism, the attack on the Bir-Hakeim bridge rather illustrates an endogenous threat: that of terrorists who leave prison, which was the case of Armand Rajabpour-Miyandoab, sentenced to five years in prison for a planned attack in 2016 at La Défense. “Compared to endogenous terrorism, the risk of a planned attack [depuis l’étranger] remains limited and minimal in France since 2018. Only a few groups are capable of carrying out attacks from abroad”analyzes the one who wrote Jihad in France, 2012-2022.
The Ministry of the Interior confirms this trend to franceinfo, taking into account the profile of the perpetrators of the latest attacks committed in France, particularly those targeting the educational community. The assassination of the teacher Dominique Bernard in Arras (Pas-de-Calais) by a young man of Chechen origin, Mohammed Mogouchkov, seems, at this stage, to be an attack committed in response to general instructions from the Islamic State, points out a judicial source. The same goes for that of Professor Samuel Paty, in October 2020. The investigations did not make it possible to demonstrate that the terrorist Abdoullakh Anzorov, also of Chechen origin, had acted in connection with any sponsor. Eight adults will be tried at the end of the year in this case, including two for complicity.
The fact remains that the threat is protean and evolving. While the capitulation of IS in Baghouz (Syria) on March 23, 2019, was seen as signaling the end of the terrorist group, the organization retained pockets of activity in the Iraqi-Syrian zone. It has also extended its influence to other regions of the world, thanks to current geopolitical events. The return to power of the Taliban in Afghanistan in the summer of 2021 favored the development of EI-K. In the Sahel, political instability has given rise to terrorist groups. As the anti-terrorism prosecutor Jean-François Ricard pointed out in January, during the solemn back-to-school hearing, each “the bottom of the wave in terrorist action has always constituted a period of withdrawal allowing jihadists to reconstitute their forces and invest deeply in society”.
The resurgence of the so-called remote-controlled threat
Thus, we are witnessing, with the Moscow attack, the return of the intermediate threat, called “remote-controlled”, with precise instructions given from an area held by jihadist fighters, analyzes Vincent Nouzille, investigative journalist specializing in terrorism, on franceinfo. Among the suspects arrested in Russia, some were of Tajik nationality, but lived on Russian territory.
“The Islamic State has set up distance, online military education courses. This allows people (…) to become more experienced before taking action.”
Vincent Nouzille, journalist specializing in terrorismon franceinfo
A scenario confirmed at the top of the State. “According to our intelligence services, people outside, in other countries, were able to give orders to people inside a country to carry out the act in a manner coordinated with the massacre that ‘we saw. This is very new and we need to be particularly careful.”, declared Gérald Darmanin on the set of France 2. The attack foiled in France in November 2022 could relate to this type of threat, just like other attack projects in Europe. In July 2023, in the North Rhine-Westphalia region of Germany, police arrested seven members of a terrorist group in contact with members of ISIS.
For historian Jenny Raflik, the alternation between large-scale attacks and “low cost attacks”initiated by Al-Qaeda in the 2000s, is still relevant today: “Planned, inspired, remote-controlled attack… This is not new, it is the strategy of 1,000 cuts, an expression of the strategy advocated by Al-Qaeda, then ISIS.”“Depending on the opportunity and the situation, terrorist organizations will emphasize one or the other, they try to develop both avenues”she explains.
A protean risk reinforced by the Paris Games
This diffuse threat, which relies sometimes on the propaganda networks of the Islamic State, sometimes on a more structured logistical organization, has been reinforced thanks to international news. “Western European jihadism has experienced renewed activity since the beginning of March, for no clear or obvious reason, but the signals are worrying”, observes Alexandre Rodde. The researcher points out that in March, more arrests took place in Europe, particularly in France, Belgium and Italy.
“The Moscow attack may motivate jihadists who do not have a direct link with the attackers, but who were considering taking action.”
Alexandre Rodde, researcher specializing in terrorismat franceinfo
It is in this flammable context that the Olympic and Paralympic Games must be held in July and August in France. The director of the DGSI, Céline Berthon, herself warned of the risk that holding this global event represents in terms of terrorism. “Without a doubt, terrorist organizations targeting the West will try to seize the opportunity of the Olympic Games to act”she told the Senate Law Committee in early March.
The Minister of the Interior assured Monday that the police and intelligence services will be “loans”. But as specialist Jenny Raflik points out, the visible presence of men in uniform – 45,000 police officers and gendarmes will be deployed – can itself give rise to acts of violence. The cyberterrorist and technological threat, via the use of drones, is also particularly feared. “We areshe points out, in a sequence where the threat is continuous, and unfortunately for us, we are always chasing the evolution of terrorism.”