At first glance, this is a vague and non-binding text. But, to read between the lines, the surprise agreement announced on the sidelines of the COP26 in Glasgow (Scotland), Wednesday, November 10, between China and the United States, revives the hope of a diplomatic action to the extent of climate challenge. The world’s two leading emitters of greenhouse gases (GHGs) commit to raising their emissions ambitions throughout this decade, in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement, which aims for limited warming “below” 2 ° C by 2100 compared to the pre-industrial era, and if possible at 1.5 ° C.
Beijing and Washington promise to work for “an ambitious, balanced and inclusive outcome” on the issue of adaptation or financial support to poor countries and undertake to cooperate in the fight against deforestation and limiting the release of methane.
Above all, this agreement uproots climate policy in extremis from the diplomatic quagmire in which the two powers have been bogged down for months. He also puts China back at the heart of the discussions after the outcry over the noted absence at COP26 of Chinese President Xi Jinping and the flood of criticism following the publication of the new commitments – judged almost unanimously. “disappointing” – of the Middle Kingdom : peak emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.
China alone is responsible for 26% of current global CO2 emissions. According to a report by the Carbon Tracker think tank *, more than 350 coal-fired power plants are under construction in China, where the share of coal in its energy mix was 57% in 2019. A significant figure to put into perspective, however: in 2009, this rate was 70% *. At the same time, the share of renewable energies increased from 7 to 15%. In March 2021, China published the details of its policy to reduce the share of carbon energies, promising to increase this rate by 25% in 2025.
But when arriving at the COP, the same country announced the immediate increase in its coal consumption to meet its demand for electricity. Because the country has known for several months gigantic power cuts in many provinces. At issue: the post-Covid-19 economic recovery, which is boosting demand for energy, without the development of renewables – which however accelerated further in 2020 – enough to meet it on time. “In recent years, when it comes to the fight against emissions, it’s been two steps forward, one step back”, described to franceinfo Li Shuo, president of Greenpeace China. Concerned “not to paint an idyllic picture” of his country, of which he castigates “very insufficient ambitions”, he considers China’s ability to rapidly transform itself as an asset.
“Decarbonization, which we are all committed to, requires a profound economic, social and political transformation. And quickly”, warns the activist. Gold, “Thirty years ago, China was on the same level as some African countries. No other country has experienced a transformation comparable to this speed. Can we only replicate this experience with a view to sustainable development for the planet? “, Li Shuo asks, quick to add that“no large country is up to the challenge”.
Aware of the scale of the challenge, the Chinese have also obtained that the agreement signed with Washington maintains the objective of a maximum increase in global average temperatures. “less than 2 ° C”. This while the declarations in Glasgow of the Westerners plead for a maximum increase of +1.5 ° C, as recommended by the experts of the IPCC. While the presidency of the summit has set this figure of 1.5 ° C as a target, this Chinese downside comes to throw a cold on the end of COP26. “China announces modest ambitions, but it is certain to keep them, Li Shuo shade. The United States, for its part, belongs to the camp of countries which over-promise and under-deliver. ”
Side reforms and transformations of society, Joe Biden has so far not much to argue. Its huge infrastructure plan – “Built back better”, “rebuild better “- the keystone of its environmental policy, is stuck at the gates of Congress. Its ambition: to invest trillions of dollars * to reduce by 2030 GHG emissions by 50 to 52% compared to 2005 levels. An objective impossible to achieve as long as 83% of the energy consumed in the country comes from fossil fuels. Because if, in 2019, the share of renewables in the American energy mix amounted to 16%, this rate took only three points compared to 2008, at the very beginning of the Obama era … golden age of shale gas exploitation.
The United States are also called upon to contribute to the portfolio to match their GHG emissions. The United States is in fact responsible for 25% of total GHG emissions since the start of the industrial era (ahead of China, at 14%). As such, the rich countries – the United States in the lead – must help the most vulnerable to adapt to the consequences of global warming. But the efforts made are not up to par. In Glasgow, the United States just recalled the promise to increase climate aid to the poorest countries to 11.4 billion, ie a six-fold increase in previous commitments.
Because the country starts from very far. Between 2016 and 2020, the departure of the Paris agreement by the United States, at the initiative of Donald Trump, had contributed to the failure of the promise to allocate 100 billion dollars each year to developing countries. In detail, in 2019, the United States had only committed to paying $ 600 million to climate-related projects in southern countries, against nearly two billion for France, and more than four German side, according to the calculation of Financial Times *. The question of financing must be a crucial point to judge the success or not of the agreement reached in Glasgow. It remains to be seen if the giant will be there or if it will be satisfied with a simple diplomatic success with China.
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