Seven months of war between rival generals in Sudan have led to thousands of deaths, millions of displaced people and raise the risk of disintegration of the country, already fragile before the outbreak of hostilities.
As the paramilitaries of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continue their brutal offensive in the Darfur region, experts fear a “Libyan scenario”, in reference to the inextricable political crisis shaking this North African country neighboring Sudan , where two governments compete for power, one established in the West and the other in the East.
In Sudan, the RSF, which now controls most of the capital Khartoum, has made dazzling advances in Darfur. At the same time, the government and army leaders left the capital to retreat to the city of Port Sudan, spared from the clashes, exacerbating fears of a breakup of the country.
“Continued fighting could lead to terrifying scenarios, including division,” warns Omar Youssef, spokesperson for the Forces of Freedom and Change (FLC), the civilian bloc ousted from power during the putsch led in 2021 by the two generals then allies and now at war.
“The growing wave of militarization (of civilians) is aggravating social fissures,” he adds to AFP.
At the negotiating table, the two camps, incapable of gaining a decisive advantage, have little intention of making concessions, as demonstrated once again by the failure in early November of talks sponsored by the United States and Saudi Arabia. , raising fears of fragmentation of the country in the event of an extension of the status quo.
The inability to reach a political solution could in fact lead to a situation similar to that of Libya, plunged into a major political crisis since the 2011 revolt, with “more than one government, without real effectiveness or international recognition” , deciphers Fisent al-Salik, political analyst and journalist.
Offensive in Darfur
The conflict started on April 15 between the head of the army, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhane, and his deputy turned rival, General Mohamed Hamdane Daglo, left more than 10,000 dead according to an estimate by the NGO Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), considered grossly undervalued.
It also displaced more than six million people and destroyed most infrastructure.
In early November, new massacres were reported after a large-scale offensive by the RSF in Darfur, where militiamen quickly claimed control of army bases in almost every major city in the region.
In the town of Ardamata alone, hundreds of people are believed to have been killed by armed groups, who forced more than 8,000 people to flee to neighboring Chad in a week, according to the UN.
The European Union (EU) said it was “appalled” by the “more than 1,000 deaths” in two days in Ardamata, warning of possible “ethnic cleansing”.
Since the start of the war, the UN has recorded more than 1.5 million internally displaced people in Darfur, a region the size of France where a quarter of the 48 million Sudanese live.
No winner
If General Daglo can count on the support of strong allies, first and foremost the United Arab Emirates, General Burhane retains his role as de facto head of state on the international scene, regularly participating in UN summits. and the Arab League.
On the ground, however, the frantic advance of the RSF in Darfur “gives them an advantage and allows them to move within their base”, according to Mr. Salik, in reference to the Arab tribes.
These are Arab militiamen, the Janjawids, who form the bulk of the RSF troops and who led in the 2000s, under the command of General Daglo, the scorched earth policy in Darfur, pillaging, raping and killing members of non-Arab ethnic groups on behalf of the deposed dictator Omar al-Bashir.
Despite the advance of the paramilitaries in Darfur, the chances of either side achieving a decisive victory remain slim, said a military expert speaking to AFP on condition of anonymity.
According to him, “even if (the army) manages to regain control of Khartoum, which promises to be very difficult, sending troops to retake the areas of Darfur controlled by the RSF represents an enormous logistical challenge”, with more than 1400 kilometers separating Khartoum from the town of El-Geneina, on the border with Chad.