“We are waiting to see”: the electoral setback suffered by President Emmanuel Macron on Sunday could lead to a weakening of France’s influence on the European scene, the extent of which remains difficult to measure for the time being, underline analysts and observers.
Since his election in 2017, and even more since the departure of German Chancellor Angela Merkel at the end of 2021, Mr. Macron has established himself as the strong man of the European Union (EU), multiplying initiatives in favor of its revival. against a backdrop of rising nationalism and the progression of populist and Eurosceptic parties.
His re-election for five years on April 24 against the far-right candidate Marine Le Pen had in this context been welcomed by the European capitals, which had insisted on “the need for a strong and united Europe” in the face of challenges as both geopolitical and climatic.
Less than two months later, it’s a cold shower: Mr. Macron’s camp comes out of the legislative elections, deprived of an absolute majority, of room for maneuver to govern and reform, and confronted with a historic breakthrough of the extreme right.
Credibility
These results “affect the political credibility of the president” and, in turn, have “a negative impact on his influence on the European scene”, analyzes Thierry Chopin, special adviser at the European research institute Jacques Delors.
Admittedly, “from a strict institutional point of view, European issues remain a strong prerogative of the president and he will retain significant power in this area,” he explains. But “if the government and the president are embarrassed, or even prevented, from carrying out structural reforms expected by their European partners, this could have a negative effect”.
Same analysis in Rome where Italian MEP and former Secretary of State for European Affairs Sandro Gozi does not expect “immediately” to see a change in “Macron’s external action”.
“A change in French foreign policy is almost impossible, but a weakening is likely,” adds Paolo Mattera, professor of contemporary history at the Università Roma Tre.
The day after the election, the time is more for conjecture than certainty as it is difficult to say precisely what the impact will be, while France holds the rotating presidency of the EU until June 30.
Many questions remain unanswered, in particular on the role that the National Rally (RN, far right) or the radical left intends to play in the future debates on the EU.
“We see trends in other Member States where a number of forces tend to destroy the EU from within,” notes Tara Varma, of the think tank European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).
“It was the program posted by [la candidate d’extrême droite] Marine Le Pen when she wanted to be president; today, with nearly 90 deputies, will the fight against the EU remain the heart of its action? This is a question that many Europeans ask themselves,” she adds.
” No gift “
If the RN decides to engage in a standoff, the exchanges could be muscular, whether on the question of the potential revision of the European treaties, the transposition of the directives or the ratification of trade agreements.
“There will be a lot to do with groups that are not known for their European sympathy”, confirms Pascale Joanin, of the Robert Schuman Foundation.
For Thierry Chopin, “none of the opposition forces” has “a political interest in giving the president a gift on European issues” given the upcoming 2024 European elections.
But, he tempers, “it is not because the National Assembly is what it is today” that Mr. Macron’s European agenda “is going to be absolutely upset, it just risks be more complex and take longer than before”.
This could be particularly the case on the sensitive issue of the enlargement of the bloc to new member states.
On this point, the RN could “impose a political debate which would be at odds with the current government”, notes Tara Varma, at the “risk of creating confusion” and blurring the message from France.
Once the adaptation period has passed, however, it is not excluded that the executive will manage to limit the damage, like other European countries where the weight of Parliament and the search for coalitions have been the daily lot for decades.
For a European diplomat, “it could be a blessing in disguise”.
“We could reproach France for not listening too much to others, for acting alone and then trying to create consensus,” he underlines. “There Emmanuel Macron will be forced to dialogue more with the other political forces in France. And that could make him engage more with member states.”