The left-wing alliance is doing better than in 2022 and aims to implement its program, despite the absence of a clear majority. The many divergences that run through it can also penalize it.
A surprise and dozens of questions. On the evening of the second round of the legislative elections, Sunday, July 7, the left won a victory that few polling institutes had mentioned during a short and intense campaign. Four weeks after the dissolution announced by Emmanuel Macron, the different parties of the New Popular Front sent between 177 and 192 deputies to the new chamber, according to our Ipsos-Talan estimate for France Télévisions, Radio France, France 24, RFI and LCP.
The left-wing electoral coalition has succeeded in the double challenge it set itself in the aftermath of the European elections, which were contested in divided order. On the one hand, to prevent the National Rally and its allies from seizing a relative (or even absolute) majority and being able to form a government; on the other hand, to do better than the 150 deputies elected under the banner of Nupes, in June 2022, after the presidential election.
As soon as they secured first place, the leaders of La France Insoumise, the Communist Party, the Ecologists-EELV and the Socialist Party celebrated their success and discussed what comes next, which looks more unclear than ever in a polarized Assembly. With their new parliamentary contingent, they claimed the right to access responsibilities within the executive. “The President has the duty to call on the New Popular Front to govern” And “this one is ready for it”launched Jean-Luc Mélenchon. The first secretary of the PS, Olivier Faure, declared for his part that “the role of the New Popular Front” would be of “rebuilding a collective project for our country”.
The left is, however, very far from obtaining 289 deputies, the threshold of an absolute majority to govern without risking a motion of censure. “If we govern, we must not do it like Emmanuel Macron, we must do it with the awareness that in the hemicycle, we will only have a very, very relative majority, and a minority in the country, we must govern with respect, with tenderness for the French”, warned François Ruffinnarrowly re-elected in the Somme after distancing himself from La France Insoumise.
“The voters are giving us one last chance for France.”
François Ruffin, re-elected MP in the Sommeduring a speech
Therefore, a question immediately arises on the evening of this electoral victory for the left, the first since the 2012 legislative elections: with whom will La France Insoumise, the Socialist Party, Les Ecologistes-EELV and the French Communist Party try to govern? “The first question is: ‘To do what?’ That’s what interests me. The ‘to do what?’ will determine ‘with whom?'” evacuated the environmentalist Marine Tondelier on France 2.
Before the second round, the national secretary of the Ecologists-EELV, who established herself as “a new face on the left” during the campaign, had not rejected any coalition with part of the presidential bloc, which limited its losses by coming second. “We must show ourselves ready to govern”had launched Marine Tondelier in Release. “The NFP will implement its program, nothing but its entire program”insisted Jean-Luc Mélenchon on Sunday evening, in front of his supporters, a way of excluding any compromise with other political forces. Olivier Faure, for his part, rejected any participation in a “coalition of opposites, which would betray the vote of the French”.
The personal score-settling continued on the evening of the second round. Raphaël Glucksmann thus sent Emmanuel Macron and Jean-Luc Mélenchon back to back. “Jupiter is over and I assure you, there will be no Robespierre either”launched the former head of the socialist list for the European elections on TF1, in reference to the leader of La France insoumise.
Divergences of opinion also appear on the attitude to adopt in the coming days. On France 2, LFI MP Clémentine Autain proposed a meeting of all left-wing MPs, starting Monday, to propose a Prime Minister to Emmanuel Macron. “It is not a group that decides, it is a President of the Republic who appoints and a National Assembly that invests”replied François Hollande, former socialist president elected deputy of Corrèze, on the same channel.
Already, there are calls to maintain the unity of the New Popular Front, after a campaign conducted together, but marked by tensions. “We must spare ourselves in the months and years to come the difficulties that we have created for ourselves.”warned the Green MP Benjamin Lucas on LCPwarning against the “old demons” of the division on the left. At the Palais-Bourbon, the Nupes had cracked in the fall of 2023, under the weight of ideological divisions, notably on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, or on the strategy to adopt to win political battles.
The left now faces the new legislature with a rebalanced balance of power in the National Assembly. Very dominant from 2022 to 2024 (75 deputies), the La France insoumise group remains the first in the left-wing coalition but is not progressing, with between 73 and 80 elected representatives. “This stagnation is proof that anti-LFI music has done its job”analyzes political scientist Simon Persico to franceinfo.
Behind, the Socialist Party doubles its contingent of parliamentarians, going from 31 deputies to an estimate of between 60 and 64. The progression is less among the Ecologists, who will have 33 to 36 seats, against 21 up to now.
“This result is mainly the result of the electoral agreements concluded after the European elections, the PS and the Ecologists succeeded in negotiating more winnable seats.”
Simon Persico, political scientistto franceinfo
“In the construction of the New Popular Front agreement, LFI played collectively, they agreed to weaken themselves”the expert continues. Finally, the French Communist Party would send 11 to 12 elected representatives to the Palais-Bourbon, with the hope of maintaining a parliamentary group alongside overseas elected representatives. And try to govern, if possible, with its left-wing partners.