After firing 200 rockets, does Hezbollah have the means for war against Israel?

The risk of an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah is increasing every day. With more than 200 rockets and explosive drones launched into northern Israel on Thursday, Hezbollah says it is responding to the killing of one of its commanders by Israel.

Near Israel’s northern border, more than 200 rockets, as well as explosive drones, were launched by Hezbollah on Thursday, July 4, 2024, while 100 other rockets had already been fired the day before. For nine months, exchanges of fire on the border between Israel and Lebanon have been daily, but the escalation of recent days raises fears of a total conflagration.

Hezbollah says it has responded to Israel’s killing of one of its commanders in southern Lebanon. He is at least the third senior member of the movement to be killed since October 2023, the start of the war between Israel and Hamas. During this outbreak of violence between Hezbollah and the Israeli army, at least 495 people have been killed in clashes on the Lebanese side, the vast majority of them Hezbollah fighters.

The Lebanese group is an ally of the Palestinian Islamist movement, but it is also supported and financed by Iran, which actually uses it as a strategic weapon. The fear of a total conflagration in the region is of great concern to the international community, led by the United Nations, which is issuing increasing alerts. On Tuesday, Emmanuel Macron telephoned Benjamin Netanyahu on this subject. A few days ago, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken also asked the Israelis to avoid a new escalation of the conflict.

This conflict could indeed be devastating, especially since Hezbollah has grown phenomenally since 2006, the date of its last major direct confrontation with Israel. Much more powerful than Hamas, it could now be made up of at least 50,000 fighters, perhaps more. With men who have notably acquired significant field experience during the war in Syria, where they acted as auxiliaries to Bashar al-Assad’s army.

But Hezbollah’s strength is above all an arsenal that we know is extremely large, even if the information is only fragmentary. It is said to have a stockpile of more than 100,000 missiles, ten times more than in 2006, and missiles with a long enough range to reach all of Israeli territory, as well as kamikaze drones. All these weapons have different uses. Short-range rockets, like those used on Thursday, are there to increase tension, while drones are used more to saturate anti-aircraft defenses.

Hezbollah is also able to strike Israeli gas platforms in the Mediterranean, and also ships. But, if this Mediterranean escalation is worrying, there are also many questions about Hezbollah’s equipment in terms of anti-aircraft defense, to face the Israeli air force.