Between the bitter disappointments expressed by many and the few gains hailed by others, the 26e UN climate conference (COP26) has above all demonstrated once again the immense difficulty of placing the planet on a viable climate trajectory, despite the evidence of scientific findings and the increasingly assertive desire to act to avoid the disaster .
“The climate catastrophe is still knocking on the door,” lamented the United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres on Saturday, just after the adoption of the “Glasgow Climate Pact”, after two weeks of difficult negotiations. “The texts adopted are a compromise. They reflect the interests, the situation, the contradictions and the state of the current political will in the world. […] Unfortunately, the collective political will was not sufficient to overcome deep contradictions, ”he insisted in a press release.
If one more example was needed of the challenge of climate negotiations for 197 States, the end of this COP26 provided one, to say the least, revealing. While everyone expected the adoption of the third version of the text of the final declaration, countries had to accept a last-minute concession on the wording of the article on fossil fuels.
At the request of India and China, the text was amended to refer to the need to continue efforts to “reduce” the use of coal without a system for capturing and storing greenhouse gas emissions ( GES), instead of focusing on “elimination”. The president of this COP26, the Briton Alok Sharma, even had his voice briefly broken by emotion, saying he was “deeply sorry” for this change, which sparked strong criticism.
Moreover, the reference to the end of “fossil fuel subsidies” had previously been amended in the second version of the draft declaration, so as to clarify that it is only a question of so-called “inefficient” subsidies.
Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science at Laval University, Alexandre Gajevic Sayegh nevertheless underlines that the issue of fossil fuels “is included for the first time within the framework of a final COP declaration”. This mention is all the more important, according to him, as there is no possible fight against the climate crisis without eliminating fossil fuels. “This is a serious problem and we are very late,” he warns, emphasizing the power of the industry “lobby”, including in the context of climate conferences.
Fellow at the Center for International Studies and Research of the University of Montreal and principal advisor at Copticom, Hugo Séguin nevertheless believes that COP26 is one where, more than ever, “fossil fuels are shown the door”. He recalls in particular that more than 80 countries, including Canada, have made a commitment to reduce their methane emissions by 30% by 2030, compared to 2020. A dozen countries and regions have also pledged to end to oil and gas exploitation projects in their territory. And more than 20 countries have announced their intention to end international fossil fuel subsidies.
Insufficient targets
Despite this progress, which would have been unthinkable just a short time ago, this COP26 has not made it possible to bring the planet significantly closer to the most ambitious objective of the Paris Agreement on the climate, namely to limit global warming. at +1.5 ° C, compared to the pre-industrial era. “We have kept +1.5 ° C within our reach […] but the pulse is weak, ”illustrated Alok Sharma on Saturday.
“This goal is still possible, but the window closes very quickly”, admits him also Alexandre Gajevic Sayegh. To achieve this, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that global GHG emissions should be reduced by 45% by 2030, compared to their 2010 level. UN calculations suggest that emissions are on track to grow by 13.7% by the end of the decade.
According to the most recent update of “Nationally Determined Contributions”, or voluntary commitments made by states, the world is still heading for a warming of at least + 2.7 ° C or even 2.2 ° C , assuming that all political promises of “carbon neutrality” by 2050 are respected. In this context, Hugo Séguin welcomes the idea of revising the level of climate ambition more quickly. The Glasgow declaration calls on countries to “revisit and strengthen” their emission reduction targets “by the end of 2022”.
Billions at stake
The revision of climate targets, which is essential to avoid the predicted sinking of the climate, will however not be sufficient to avoid an increase in the impacts of the crisis, particularly for the regions of the world which are already suffering the repercussions: droughts, tornadoes, rise water level, decline in biodiversity, flooding, etc.
However, the issue of climate finance, which weighs on all the negotiations in recent years, has still not been fully resolved. As early as 2009, developed countries had promised to provide developing countries with an annual envelope of $ 100 billion, to help them reduce their GHG emissions and adapt to the impacts of the climate crisis. However, this sum is still not there and it may only be in 2023.
The COP26 did not make it possible for the poorest countries to win their case over possible financing specific to the “losses and damages” that they are already suffering because of global warming, when they are not. not responsible for it. The adopted compromise only sets up an annual “dialogue” on this issue until 2024.
These multi-billion dollar questions should be asked even more insistently in the coming years, according to Hugo Séguin. He also estimates that during the planned revision of the fund of 100 billion dollars, from 2025, the bill could amount to “hundreds of billions of dollars”. “The 100 billion dollars is small change compared to needs, but also compared to financial flows in the world,” he underlines. According to the United Nations Development Program, governments spend $ 423 billion annually on fossil fuel subsidies.
Disappointment and hopes
Several environmental organizations and many scientists have deplored the lack of ambition of COP26, as the climate crisis continues to worsen. “It’s watered down, it’s weak and the 1.5 ° C target is barely alive, but a signal has been sent: the era of coal is over. And that matters, ”summed up Greenpeace International Executive Director Jennifer Morgan.
Refusing to speak of success, Équiterre referred to the influence of the fossil fuel industry on the final declaration of COP26. “As long as its voice is so strong, counting on more than 500 representatives in Glasgow, and that it is supported by certain States, the outcome of the international climate negotiations will not be able to match the important transformation that our societies must operate without delay, ”argued Andréanne Brazeau, political analyst for the organization.
“I understand the exasperation and fed up with many. I have been following the COP for a long time and I see the progress, but also the progression of climate change and its impacts. They are advancing faster than our capacity to face them, ”insists Hugo Séguin. “But in Glasgow, we made progress in our means of reducing the impacts, while remaining fixed on the target of +1.5 ° C. We made the gains that were possible and we decided to look at what more we can do in the next year, before arriving next year with a commitment to do more. We should therefore reduce the gaps, ”he predicts.
Alexandre Gajevic Sayegh, for his part, insists on the importance of implementing the commitments made on the international scene. “The fight against the climate crisis must be done at all levels of governance, up to the house. The COP is one instrument among others. Now, we must see here how the governments of Quebec and Canada, but also the municipalities, will act to become leaders in the fight against change. There are a lot of things to do with us. “