The wave of protest in Iran not only does not weaken, but rather tends to grow. It’s extraordinary: the street does not want to bend in the face of the violence of power. And discontent takes many different forms. Here, a handful of schoolgirls film themselves, with their backs to the camera, giving the middle finger to the photo of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. There, we see quasi-improvised demonstrations at nightfall, in many cities. They bring together a few hundred people each time. This slogan is now recurrent: “Death to the dictator, death to Khamenei”.
Large day of protests throughout Iran today. Crowds in Tehran this eve chanting “Death to the Dictator”. Popular anger shows no signs of subsidizing.
pic.twitter.com/z5AWF37zim— Karim Sadjadpour (@ksadjadpour) October 8, 2022
The dispute, which initially focused on the specific question of wearing the veil after the death of Mahsa Amini, has widened. Like a river that comes out of its bed, after decades of frustration in the face of restrictions on freedoms and economic deprivation. In a new development, at the beginning of this week of October 10, we also saw lawyers demonstrating in front of the Ministry of Justice, more than 800 doctors signing a petition condemning the violence, workers in the oil sector going on strike for two days, in Abadan or Asaluyeh. And the challenge is also gaining neighborhoods deemed loyal to the regime.
Asaluyeh, southern Iran – Contract workers, being on strike, are chanting, “Death to the dictator!” pic.twitter.com/KDxU7AZ2t8
— hamid enayat (@h_enayat) October 10, 2022
Opposite, the response of power does not change: repression above all. In particular in Tehran but also in the regions of Kurdistan and Balochistan where the street becomes the scene of clashes between demonstrators and police. Law enforcement who fire tear gas and also live ammunition. The Bassidji, the ruling militia, are doing what they are used to doing. Human rights organizations put the figure at 185 dead, including 28 children. Power has also cut off the Internet and social networks. But many videos still slip through the cracks with VPN-like setups, so you can continue to collect information. The regime maintains the same discourse. This Thursday, October 13, the conservative President Ebrahim Raïssi took over the narrative already developed by Ayatollah Khamenei a few days earlier: all that is the fault of the United States which “target Iran with a policy of destabilization”. In this logic, the demonstrators are therefore “Enemies of the Nation”. This theory allows power to justify repression.
The big question is of course whether Iranian power can still crack. We are not there yet. There is a strong caste solidarity, reinforced by an almost mafia-like logic: the Revolutionary Guards, as they are called, control the entire informal economy. So repression remains the most probable hypothesis. Nevertheless, the protest is so scattered in the country, so difficult to control that yes, cracks can appear. We hear a few rare voices being expressed, including in the conservative ranks, to say that force is not the solution, that we must dialogue. And even to denounce the “business logic of the regime”. Even in the ranks of the Bassidji militia, some seem reluctant to apply the instructions. No one can predict what will happen next. Iran is going through an absolutely fascinating moment.