If Quebec’s vulnerabilities to climate change are beginning to be better documented, a lot of work remains to be done in terms of adaptation measures, underlines a report released by the Ouranos consortium on Tuesday.
Updated yesterday at 11:58 p.m.
“A big challenge”
Quebec’s vulnerabilities to climate change are beginning to be better documented, but the implementation of adaptation measures is “uneven among the different sectors and remains, for some environments, a major challenge”, indicates the document.
This nearly 130-page report is part of a vast overview published by Natural Resources Canada, entitled Canada in a Changing Climate. Engineer Angelica Alberti-Dufort, research and knowledge mobilization specialist at Ouranos, is the main author of the Quebec chapter.
If reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions remains a priority to “avoid the worst scenarios”, climate change is nevertheless “inevitable”, recalls the Quebec chapter.
“The goal of adaptation is to learn to live with climate change. »
+ 1 to 3°C
The province’s average temperature has already warmed up, depending on the region, by 1 to 3°C since 1950, and without major GHG reduction measures, the rise is likely to continue, warns Ouranos. It could be 3.5°C in 2050, and more than 6°C in 2080, compared to the period 1981-2010, estimates the organization.
80%
More than three quarters of the Quebec population lives in urban areas, which are already experiencing problems amplified by climate change, recalls Ouranos. In addition to heat islands and stormwater management, they are generally established near watercourses, which makes them susceptible to flooding, as seen in 2017 and 2019. In eastern Quebec, it is rather erosion and marine flooding that threaten coastal communities.
PHOTO FROM THE CANADA IN A CHANGING CLIMATE REPORT
Section of Route 132 washed away by the waves in La Martre, Gaspésie
Winners and losers
The contrasting effects of climate change are particularly visible in agriculture. While several crops, including soybeans, corn and certain forage species, could give better yields due to the lengthening of the growing season, other crops more suited to cool regions, such as canola, barley and wheat, could suffer from the increased heat.
Quebec could find itself advantaged if production succeeds in extending further north — soybeans and grain corn, but also apples and grapes.
PHOTO HUGO-SEBASTIEN AUBERT, LA PRESSE ARCHIVES
The lengthening of the growing season could benefit some crops, such as corn and soybeans, but others could suffer, such as wheat.
On the other hand, warmer autumns, mild spells and winter rains can harm crops used to feed cattle, including alfalfa. Climate change can also promote diseases and weeds, affect the quality and volume of crops, and affect livestock.
Indigenous inspired
The more frequent thaws in winter and the generally milder temperatures reduce the period of freeze-up, which makes travel for fishing, hunting and trapping less safe “throughout Quebec”, underlines the report. For Indigenous people, this is a real livelihood issue, but many have already taken steps to adapt, the report notes.
Faced with the decline of the caribou herd on the Ungava Peninsula, for example, seven Aboriginal nations created a Round Table to coordinate the management of the herd and promote its recovery. The measures deployed by indigenous communities, which are focused on future generations, “are a source of inspiration and resilience for all societies”, emphasizes Ouranos.
Triggers
“It is often following devastating climatic events that measures are taken to adapt”, note the authors.
The 1996 Saguenay flood, for example, gave rise to a commission of inquiry which led to a Dam Safety Act. The floods of 2017 and 2019 prompted Quebec to update its mapping of flood zones. Coastal erosion and flooding have also prompted investment in eastern Quebec, particularly in Percé, with the rehabilitation of the Anse du Sud shoreline.
PHOTO FROM THE CANADA IN A CHANGING CLIMATE REPORT
Before and after the work on the Percé coast
Lack of knowledge
“A lot of knowledge is still lacking, particularly in terms of social sciences and adaptation methods,” however, points out the Quebec chapter, pleading for more research.
Certainly, the Montreal strategy for dealing with extreme heat shows that certain measures, such as home visits and daily calls to sick and socially isolated seniors, “appear to have reduced mortality”. But the increased impact on health of heat waves or other climatic hazards in connection with variables “translating social deprivation” (being single or living alone, having contact with relatives or participating in social activities) has made the object of “little Quebec work”.