(Quebec) The study commissioned by the cities to support their request for 2 billion per year for 10 years to adapt to climate change is the “most credible” to have been carried out in Canada on the subject, according to the director general of ‘Ouranos, Alain Bourque. But if they claim more money, they nevertheless leave some on the table, according to Quebec.
In this showdown between the big cities and the Legault government, the study commissioned by the Union of Quebec Municipalities (UMQ) from the firm WSP comes back constantly. She estimates that the economic burden from the impact of climate change on cities “is about $2.3 billion per year for the next decade or so.”
The analysis estimates that the total cost of climate change to municipal infrastructure by 2080 will be $72 billion. But even if it leaves room for “a lot of uncertainty”, “it is probably the best study that currently exists in Canada”, estimates Alain Bourque, director general of Ouranos. He points out that his organization has been a “scientific advisor” to WSP, but that it is the engineering firm that signs the report.
On the other hand, Quebec, which refuses to give such a sum to the cities, does not have forecasts on what the province should invest to protect itself against the vagaries of the climate to come.
The office of Environment Minister Benoit Charette says that “cities are asking for billions, but [qu’]they can’t even manage to spend the sums that are already available”.
“We therefore ask them to first use the existing envelopes to meet their needs, which they are not doing at the moment”, it is said.
A deserted OASIS
In a written message, his office says that the OASIS program, launched last year, has not been very popular, since “only $800,000 has been granted”, while 4.6 million had been budgeted for the first year.
“There are 112 million planned over five years and we want it to be useful”, we note. However, this program pays for up to 80% “of green infrastructure allowing rainwater to be managed other than by directing it into the sewer system” and “for greening that fights against heat islands”, two key actions adaptation to climate change.
According to our information, the UMQ even asked the Legault government in a resolution to expand the program to other green measures, such as the installation of flower boxes or cycle paths, since they contribute to “resilience”. cities.
Another example raised by Benoit Charette’s team: the wetland restoration or creation program has a pot of 113 million. However, as of February, only 3.7 million had been allocated. The cities can however take advantage of it, it is pointed out.
Moreover, the City of Montreal would not have budgeted all of the 117 million allocated to its climate plan by Quebec, according to a document that The Press obtained. Nearly 20 million have still not been allocated by the city, which must spend it by 2026.
Who will pay ?
Premier François Legault maintained that the Government of Quebec would invest nearly $1.4 billion in adaptation to climate change in the coming years and recalled that the citizen’s ability to pay was not infinite.
It is not unlimited, which one might add, both on the property tax of the municipalities and on the income taxes of the Government of Quebec. […] We will continue to do our part. Municipalities also need to do their part.
François Legault, Premier of Quebec
But someone will have to pay. “It’s going to cost a butter, that’s for sure. It will be very expensive, ”drops Pierre Valois, president of the Quebec Observatory for adaptation to climate change.
PHOTO ROBERT SKINNER, LA PRESSE ARCHIVES
Alain Bourque, CEO of Ouranos
The boss of Ouranos, Alain Bourque, says that while the WSP study estimates the cost of the changes, it does not show that it is up to the Quebec government to pay the entire bill.
Professor Valois points out that adaptation to climate change is very broad, and sometimes difficult to quantify. “There is the adaptation of citizens, the adaptation of ministries, but companies will also have to adapt,” he underlines.
Very expensive
Without having read the WSP study, Mr. Valois stresses, however, that the order of magnitude of the estimated amounts is plausible. “When you want to adapt to coastal erosion, eradicate heat islands by demineralizing and planting trees, when you redo the sewers, all of that is very expensive,” he says. Without being part of the political game between the UMQ and the Legault government, he believes that this debate demonstrates that “everyone is starting to realize that we cannot ignore adaptation”.
He points out, for example, that the Ministry of Health and Social Services will also incur significant costs. He cites the example of ragweed, whose pollen season will lengthen. A 2015 study by Ouranos estimated that it could cost up to 360 million in 2065. And that’s not counting the impact of global warming on disadvantaged populations.
Mr. Valois believes, however, that it would be interesting for the Quebec government to conduct a study to estimate the cost of adapting to climate change.
Canadians misinformed about the risks of natural disasters
Although major floods are occurring more frequently, Canadians remain uninformed of the risk they face and are therefore ill-prepared, according to the federal government’s first report to profile the risks of natural disasters. However, 80% of major Canadian cities are located entirely or partially in flood-prone areas. This first risk assessment aims to enable citizens, municipalities and provincial, territorial and federal governments to better prepare for future disasters. The report identifies other gaps, including the lack of coordination between levels of government to respond to floods and the fact that “the data and information available to mitigate flood risk are disparate and [que] Canadians are not aware of it. This first national risk assessment deals with earthquakes, forest fires and floods. The next will look at heat waves and hurricanes.
Mylene Crete, The Press