Despite the blazing sun shining on Washington, things were far from sunny for Justin Trudeau at the summit of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
The Canadian Prime Minister ended up giving birth to a too vague roadmap promising to reach the military spending target set by the alliance 10 years ago. Not without allowing the deep exasperation of NATO member countries to grow for two days. A diplomatic tango as hazardous as it was irresponsible, at the end of a week that exposed Mr. Trudeau’s credibility deficit with his closest allies.
It was only on the last day of the 75the NATO summit that the Prime Minister chose to announce — without any details — that Canada will reach by 2032 — possibly — the military investment target of member countries of 2% of their gross domestic product (GDP). How? By acquiring equipment that was only mentioned in the spring update of his defence policy. Which did not set a timeline for reaching the famous 2%. The possible purchase of a new fleet of up to 12 submarines as well as icebreakers, however, allows Justin Trudeau to claim to have a “plan”.
Whether he will be able to appease his allies is another question.
The Liberals are right to point out that they promised to nearly triple military budgets over 15 years. They are also right to repeat that Canada was spending only 1% of its GDP when they came to power. But within NATO, 10 other member countries have indeed managed to reach 2% in 10 years. And all, except Canada, had a timetable for getting there.
The indicator is certainly imperfect, since it relates to the national economy of the partners. Canada is thus ranked 27e ranks in military spending relative to its GDP, out of 32 countries, while it comes eighth in absolute dollars. And the United States is only third, although its military budgets are 28 times higher than those of Poland, which is at the top of the GDP rankings. Viktor Orbán’s Hungary, in the middle of the pack in spending relative to GDP, fraternizes with the two strategic enemies of the transatlantic alliance, the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, and the Chinese president, Xi Jinping… Contributions to the defense of the European continent are not just a question of numbers.
Canada’s staunch support for Ukraine, however, is hampered by depleted equipment reserves, a glaring shortage of personnel and legendary slow procurement processes. Barely more than half of the troops are fit to respond to an urgent call from NATO, the CBC revealed. The Canadian forces even exempted themselves from taking part in exercises last year. This is the price for these setbacks that Justin Trudeau is paying today.
The Parliamentary Budget Officer has also just reassessed the government’s military spending projection (to 1.4% of GDP by 2030, rather than 1.76%). In particular because of perpetual “risks of delay and underspending of budgets”. There is reason to doubt that the 2% target will still hold in eight years. And this, while NATO has just made it a floor and not a ceiling.
The shadow of former and possible future US President Donald Trump was not only hanging over the alliance summit. His wrath was also looming over the Canadian prime minister. For it was his influential Republican allies who provided him with the sharpest criticism. Elbridge Colby, a former adviser to Mr. Trump who is expected to return to his entourage if he is re-elected, even mocked that Justin Trudeau was “openly flouting” the warnings of the United States and suggested that Canada should be excluded from the G7 or punished with border tariffs.
The fiery president’s first term should serve as a lesson: no one, not even Canada, with whom he has had many disagreements, can rely on such an unpredictable ally to protect its sovereignty. Melting ice is chilling the geopolitical climate in the Arctic. Russia’s designs there are well known, and Donald Trump boasts that he intends to let it do whatever it wants with NATO members who will not spend enough.
For now, the transatlantic alliance’s solidarity with the world order and for Ukraine’s independence has held up, with €40 billion in additional aid and new air defense systems. President Volodymyr Zelensky, however, has left empty-handed, his accession to NATO now on an “irreversible” but still distant path, while the Russian army continues to advance and bomb everything, even children’s hospitals.
No one was more worried than he about a possible re-election of Donald Trump in November. Next year’s summit could then be atrociously more disappointing.