A tighter duel than in 2017. This is the forecast of many polling institutes two days before the second round of the presidential election, Sunday April 24, during which outgoing President Emmanuel Macron will face Marine Le Pen again.
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At the end of an unprecedented first round, which saw the historic parties collapse and a small gap between the candidate of the National Rally and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, new electoral trends seem to be taking shape in France. While waiting for D-Day, franceinfo reviews the variables that will weigh in the balance of the second round.
What do the latest polls say ?
The outgoing president is capitalizing more and more on the voting intentions, according to the polls published this week. With a score of 57.5% against 42.5% for his rival, Emmanuel Macron even sees his lead increase over Marine Le Pen in view of the second round of the presidential election, according to the latest edition of the daily barometer of Ipsos-Sopra Steria for franceinfo and Le Parisien-Today in France, produced and published Thursday, April 21, the day after the debate between the two rounds. According to our barometer, the gap has only widened since the first round.
Be careful, however, not to confuse polling and prediction, because it is above all a snapshot of opinion at a given moment. It should also be remembered that a poll always involves a margin of error. Invited on April 19 of the morning of France Inter, the pollster Brice Teinturier warned about the idea of an election played in advance, by listing the conditions which could allow Marine Le Pen to turn the tide.
.@BriceTeinturier : “The most likely scenario is a victory for Emmanuel Macron, but which would remain in an area around 54-56%” #le79inter pic.twitter.com/bNvLIodWOx
– France Inter (@franceinter) April 19, 2022
What will the abstention be?
If the abstainer was a candidate, she would have come out on top in the first round. Indeed, one in four voters did not vote on April 10. With 26.31% of registered abstainers, it increased by 4 points compared to the first round of 2017. It is more marked among the youngest voters and exceeds 40% among 18-24 year olds and 25-34 year olds. years. On the other hand, it drops below 15% among 60-69 year olds, an age group which very largely voted for Emmanuel Macron in the first round, explained to franceinfo Mathieu Gallard, director of studies at Ipsos.
Since the presidential election of 1974, the second round has traditionally been marked by fewer abstentions than in the first round. With one exception: the second round of 2017, which already pitted Marine Le Pen against Emmanuel Macron. “A lot of people did not recognize themselves”, explains Céline Braconnier, professor specializing in electoral behavior. The repetition of the 2017 scenario and the frustration linked to a new call for a “dam” vote are all factors that could increase abstention, to the detriment of Emmanuel Macron, advances the researcher.
What are the voters of Mélenchon going to do?
With 21.95% of the votes won in the first round, i.e. 7,712,520 votes, the candidate of La France insoumise followed Marine Le Pen (23.15%). All eyes have since been on his electorate, in sufficient numbers to mark the second round one way or another. Will they follow the instructions of their candidate, who has enjoined his supporters not to give “one voice to Madame Le Pen”without however explicitly calling for a vote for Emmanuel Macron?
To answer this question, La France insoumise conducted a consultation in which 215,292 people participated. One week before the second round, 37.65% of those questioned answered that they would vote blank or null, 33.40% were in favor of Emmanuel Macron and 28.96% said they preferred abstention.
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As for the rest of the voting instructions, they lean clearly in favor of Emmanuel Macron. Thus, Valérie Pécresse (LR), Yannick Jadot (EELV), Anne Hidalgo (PS) called to vote for the outgoing president. More nuanced, the communist Fabien Roussel and the anti-capitalist Philippe Poutou called for blocking the far right. On the side of Jean Lassalle (Resist!) and Nathalie Arthaud (Lutte Ouvrière), categorical refusal to give voting instructions. Only Eric Zemmour and Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, who collected 9% of the votes cast between them, called to vote for Marine Le Pen.
Did the debate help the undecided?
Broadcast Wednesday evening by France 2 and TF1, the televised debate between the finalist candidates only brought together 15.6 million viewers. A score below that of 2017 for an appointment which often plays only a minor role in the making of electoral opinions. “The convinced are reassured and the opponents are confirmed”summarizes Franck Louvrier, former communications advisor to Nicolas Sarkozy. “The debate between the two rounds, although unavoidable, has never been decisive. It is always the confirmation of a campaign dynamic”underlines for his part the historian Jean Garrigues.
For voters of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the lines have not moved. “It does not comfort me to vote Macron, explains to franceinfo an activist who watched the debate in Alfortville. But this confirms to me that above all Le Pen must not be president…” Status quo also for many undecided, like this Melenchonist voter interviewed by France 2 in Marseille: “I still haven’t made my choice, but it’s not the debate that will enlighten me on this, it will be to decide if I want to block the far right or not.”