In 2017, abstention in the first round had reached 51.3%. But that number is about to be beaten.
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Abstention should reach 52.8% in the first round of legislative elections, Sunday June 12, according to a first estimate Ipsos-Sopra Steria for France Télévisions, Radio France, France Médias Monde and parliamentary channels. If this figure is confirmed, it would be a new record, five years after the 2017 elections which saw 51.3% of voters shun the ballot box. This abstention rate was already the highest of the Fifth Republic. The figure for this Sunday therefore confirms a trend already largely outlined since 1958: that of a growing abstention in the legislative elections.
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This abstention rate promises to be significantly higher than that of the first round of the presidential election last April, for which 26.31% of voters had decided not to go to vote. A trend that we had already observed in previous elections. Since 2002 and the inversion of the electoral calendar, which placed the legislative elections shortly after the presidential one, the latter have always recorded lower abstention rates than those of the legislative elections.
The low turnout in Sunday’s vote will have consequences for the second round of elections. In order to stay in the race, the candidates must gather more than 12.5% of the votes of the registered voters. Consequence: the greater the abstention, the higher the qualification threshold. The quadrangular and triangular should therefore be few.