(New York) The day after the decision of the Supreme Court of the United States reversing the judgment Roe v. wade, some commentators and political strategists doubted that the issue of abortion would still find an echo five months later, on the occasion of the midterm elections. “It’s the economy, stupid!” they repeated, using an old slogan that seemed appropriate in this era of high inflation.
We know the rest. In several key states and precincts, women’s right to terminate their pregnancies affected the choices of female voters in particular and contributed to the victory of many Democratic candidates who otherwise would likely have lost.
But the effect Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization will it still be felt during the presidential election of 2024?
On the sidelines of the first anniversary of the judgment which put an end to the protection of the constitutional right to abortion, Mary Ziegler has no doubts on this subject.
“The issue of abortion will probably be just as important, if not more important, than before,” says this law professor at the University of California at Davis and historian of the abortion debate in the United States.
“Some of what we’re seeing is a response to what conservative activists are doing, what Republican state legislatures are doing. This is what allowed the question to remain topical. This also means that the issue of abortion is very unstable. In many states, the laws are contested. And we are seeing efforts, with some chance of success in my view, to use the federal courts to create a national ban. It is therefore all this that makes the question remain topical. »
Republicans Divided
At the start of the 2024 presidential campaign, the candidates of the two parties are facing this reality in diametrically opposed ways. The Democrats, who have long walked on eggshells when talking about abortion, have already signaled their intention to pursue their 2022 strategy. Namely: to fully exploit the positions of their rivals on this sensitive issue to expose their radicalism.
“These so-called extremist leaders dare to tell us what is in our interests,” Kamala Harris said during a speech on the campus of Howard University, her alma mater, the same day Joe Biden launched his campaign. presidential. “Well, I say, I trust the women of America. I trust the American people. »
Republicans, on the other hand, are at a loss on which foot to dance, having for decades subscribed unwaveringly to the religious right’s dream of overturning the ruling. Roe v. wade. Since the realization of this dream, and the disappointing results of the 2022 midterm elections, they no longer speak with one voice.
So Donald Trump and other Republican presidential candidates have shocked one of the most prominent groups in the anti-abortion movement by saying that abortion is a matter best left to the states.
This group, called Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, demands that all Republican aspirants to the White House support the plan to ban abortion after 15 weeks nationwide. States with more restrictive abortion laws would obviously not be affected by this ban.
“The pro-life movement will continue its efforts to save more lives in the United States and demand federal gestational protection so that California, Illinois, New York and others cannot continue their policies. extremes of abortion on demand, mirroring what is happening in North Korea and China,” said Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of SBA Pro-Life, in a recent statement.
The evolution of public opinion may explain the hesitation or refusal of certain Grand Old Party candidates to support the position of Marjorie Dannenfelser’s group.
According to a recent Pew Research Center poll, the proportion of people who think it should be easier to have an abortion rose from 31% in 2019 to 43% in areas where abortion was banned following the repeal of the judgment Roe v. wade. A similar rise has been seen in states where abortion has been restricted or where the law is being challenged in court.
Spin off
These data also undoubtedly explain why the governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, often overlooks one of the most important laws he has enacted, the one that now prohibits abortion in his state after six weeks. The move may be popular with the Republican Party’s more conservative activists, but it’s likely to hurt him among the broader electorate if he wins the GOP nomination for the 2024 presidential election. .
PHOTO JOSE LUIS MAGANA, ASSOCIATED PRESS
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at a conference of evangelical conservatives in Washington on Friday
“DeSantis represents an extreme opinion, even within the Republican Party which, in my opinion, has become quite extreme. He’s very right-wing,” comments Jessica Watters, a professor of reproductive law at American University.
Like other specialists who follow the debate around abortion in the United States, Jessica Watters expected the eventual cancellation of the judgment Roe v. wade and the fallout from that decision across the United States.
“Much of what we see is horrifying and devastating, but not surprising,” she said. On the other hand, we see States and citizens mobilizing as never before. I would say that I was surprised by the results of several referendums [sur l’avortement] last fall. I didn’t expect all of these referenda to end up in favor of the pro-choicers, even in the more conservative states. »
It remains to be seen whether it will be the same in 2024.