“I hear noises but as always, nothing solid”, strums on Telegram – LREM’s favorite messenger – a movement executive. The macronie lives again to the rhythm of rumors, while a reshuffle is expected. Returning from an international sequence which led him to the G7 summits in Germany and NATO in Spain, Emmanuel Macron spoke on Friday July 1 with his Prime Minister.
Elisabeth Borne must present to him the conclusions of the consultations which she carried out this week with the political parties, reported on LCI the spokesperson of the government, Olivia Grégoire. “It seems almost normal to me that the Prime Minister reserve her conclusions for the President of the Republic following these exchanges”she said.
The timing is subject to speculation. Asked about a possible reshuffle before Elisabeth Borne’s general policy statement, Wednesday July 6, before Parliament, Olivia Grégoire replied: “Normally it should be like that, yes.” The weekend promises to be very studious and the phones should heat up, because at this stage, “everything is conditional” and “everything is possible”drags a source close to the folder.
However, there are certainties. The three ministers beaten in the legislative elections (Amélie de Montchalin, in charge of Ecological Transition and Territorial Cohesion, Brigitte Bourguignon, Health and Prevention, and Justine Benin, Secretary of State for the Sea) will leave the government, according to the rule reaffirmed by the executive. These three women remained in office until the end, knowing that they were going to leave, which caused some concern in the sectors concerned by their perimeter. This is not the case of Yaël Braun-Pivet. Appointed overseas minister, she left the government on Tuesday June 28 to become president of the National Assembly. As his position is therefore also vacant, four portfolios are to be filled.
There remains the thorny case of Damien Abad. The Minister of Solidarity, Autonomy and Disabled People is under investigation for attempted rape after the complaint of a woman denouncing facts that allegedly took place at a party in 2010. After publication by Mediapart other accusatory testimonies, the judicialization of this case which has been going on for several weeks already makes the minister’s position difficult to maintain.
Within the majority, his departure is not a taboo. “Beyond the legal question, there is the symbolslips a Renaissance deputy. In such a complex political period, we must have a government that eases tensions.” Damien Adam, Renaissance deputy for Seine-Maritime, does not beat around the bush: “Politically, he brought nothing and he cost us enormously. I don’t see how he can assume his responsibilities as Minister of Solidarity given the situation.”
“I hope he will understand that he is serving the general interest by clinging to his position and that in order for him to be able to defend himself he must step back.”
Damien Adam, Renaissance MP for Seine-Maritimeat franceinfo
For this other member of the MoDem, Damien Abad is quite simply “crimson” and it is about “to avoid the additional balls”.
Beyond the Abad case and other vacancies, will the government be radically overhauled? “I’m not sure there are many changes apart from substitutions”believes a ministerial adviser. “I don’t think it’s necessary to change everything and it’s not a reshuffled government that will change the absence of an absolute majority, especially since the oppositions have indicated that they don’t want to join the government”shifts Damien Adam.
Nevertheless, the new situation in the Assembly must be integrated into the composition of the government. But how ? Denis Masséglia, Renaissance MP for Maine-et-Loire, imagines “an enlarged government, which must integrate the different political sensitivities of left and right – with the exception of the extremes – which could work with the presidential majority”. Jérémie Peltier, director of studies at the Jean-Jaurès foundation, however, sees limits. “Looking for a symbol of the right or the left, it no longer works”he explains.
“The general public is mature enough to understand that the poachings are tactical moves and create more animosity with left and right.”
Jérémie Peltier, Director of Studies at the Jean-Jaurès Foundationat franceinfo
For this expert, the period is rather favorable to “non-dogmatic profiles, able to discuss without too much animosity with the right as well as the left”, typically people from civil society. Members of the majority are well aware that we will have to reconnect with the country. “We need people of dialogue who will make it possible to embody the new method of government”assures an influential parliamentarian of the majority. “It is essential that the profiles of this new government be able to talk about the realities of the French, to talk to the French”pleads Denis Masséglia.
For this, others evoke the notions of“empathy” and of “sympathy” that should be encouraged by future ministers. “The country has become so epidermal and unstable from an emotional point of view that it has now become an important criterion for future ministers: you have to have a certain degree of empathy and human warmth”, explains Jérémie Peltier.
Beyond these almost philosophical considerations, the executive must – in addition to respecting parity – ensure the balance of ministerial portfolios within its own majority. Renaissance, Horizons, MoDem, Agir… The various components of the presidential camp will not fail to count their pawns in the next team. At the MoDem, François Bayrou’s lieutenants are on the alert. “We only had one minister [deux si l’on compte Marc Fesneau et Justine Bénin] when we had five before, it’s a serious imbalance, rebalancing is mandatory”, warns a parliamentarian. Politics is never far away.