A year of war in Ukraine | Moscow persists, Kyiv resists

Nobody gave much of Ukraine when Russia launched its first missiles on the country of Volodymyr Zelensky. However, a year later, the Ukrainian forces are still standing up to the invader. And there is nothing to predict the imminent end of the clashes.

Maria Avdeeva is not one to be easily impressed.

As many of her compatriots fled the Russian advance a year ago, this Kharkiv resident stayed behind to document the deadly impact of missile and mortar fire on her city, risking her life to bear witness to the situation.

Troops sent by Russian President Vladimir Putin have been pushed back tens of kilometers away for several months, but continue to regularly attack the agglomeration, targeting parks, educational establishments and residential buildings.

“They use modified surface-to-air missiles that reach their target in 45 seconds. We can’t intercept them […] The goal of the Russians is to create a perpetual threat so that people think twice about coming back,” said Ms.^me Avdeeva, who we spoke to last March^⁠1.

Added to this threat is the memory of the abuses suffered by civilians in occupied towns like Izium, where the Ukrainian went in September, and the human losses linked to the invasion.

“A woman who preferred to stay in her apartment rather than move with the rest of her family to a building with a stronger basement lost eight loved ones suddenly in March during the attack on the city. Russian aircraft hit the building directly,” she said.

The population must now deal with the possibility of a new major offensive by Russian forces, which have concentrated hundreds of thousands of troops in the east of the country in recent weeks in an attempt to regain the advantage.

Ukrainian soldiers and civilians are concerned, but determined to stand up.

M^me Avdeeva is impatient to see the arrival of the tanks and long-range bombs recently promised by Ukraine’s Western allies.

“Help will arrive, but time is crucial. It must materialize as quickly as possible, ”says the one who is a political scientist by training.

Andriy Zelenskyy, a chaplain who travels around the country to lend his support to Ukrainian troops, is also exasperated by the relative slowness with which things are getting organized.

The expected delivery schedule for the Leopard 2 tanks seems to suggest that some countries are in no rush to move forward when the military situation requires it, he said.

“We continue to fight for our existence. No one offered us any other option,” notes the monk, who says he is confident about the ability of Ukrainian troops to counter the announced Russian push.

Everything is still possible

The concentration of troops in the east of the country shows that the Russian president has not given up his objective of subjugating Ukraine despite the multiple setbacks that have occurred since the launch of the invasion, notes Brian Taylor, specialist in Russia attached to Syracuse University.

“All his chips are on the table. From his point of view, it is an existential issue for his regime even if there is no indication that his grip on power is threatened in any way, ”he notes.

Mr Taylor notes that the Russian ability to regain the advantage and conquer more territory after suffering embarrassing setbacks in the Kyiv, Kharkiv and Kherson regions risks being undermined by the unpreparedness of recently conscripted troops and trained.

The Russian army, he adds, has not demonstrated its ability to effectively and quickly carry out complex military operations coordinating land and air forces and risks falling back into the same traps, regardless of the level of ambition displayed by the Kremlin.

The possibility for Ukrainian forces to launch a new decisive counter-offensive also seems limited, notes Liam Collins, an American military analyst, who doubts the ability of Russia and Ukraine to reap substantial new advances in the near future.

By giving ground during the year, the Russians concentrated their troops and reinforced the positions under their control. The Ukrainians are compensating for their lower numbers with their increased motivation, preparation and western support offered to them, bringing the conflict to a “form of balance”, notes Mr. Collins.

Moscow’s massive troop addition will likely be met by sending new weapons to Ukraine, adds analyst, who expects conflict to last a long time as there is no possible common ground between the two belligerents.

A negotiated solution?

Dominique Arel, Ukraine specialist attached to the University of Ottawa, notes that the government of Volodymyr Zelensky had initially opened the door to a negotiated solution providing for a return to the territorial situation prevailing before the February 2022 offensive. over Crimea, Moscow then kept control of part of the Donbass through pro-Russian militias.

The extent of the abuses perpetrated by Russian troops in the country, however, has galvanized the Ukrainian population and its leaders, who now say they want to liberate the entire national territory, he said.

Brian Taylor thinks that the objective promises to be difficult to achieve. Vladimir Putin, he warns, is banking on the possibility that Western support for Ukraine, especially the United States, will crumble over time in the event of a military stalemate and give him the advantage.

The support of the Democratic administration of Joe Biden has in fact intensified over the past year, notes the analyst, even if voices are rising on the Republican side to dispute the importance of the aid granted.

Joshua Shifrinson, a University of Maryland professor attached to the Cato Institute, a conservative research group, believes the US government is overestimating the importance of the Ukraine crisis relative to its own interests and should consider putting pressure on Kyiv to foster an agreement reflecting the current military situation.

The United States, he points out, notably made it clear to Russia through its actions that any attack on a NATO country would elicit a heavy-handed response, limiting the risk of any further expansionist attempts by the Kremlin in the region. .

Eugene Rumer, Russia specialist attached to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, notes that this desire to force Ukraine to give up part of its territory in exchange for peace remains largely in the minority in American academic and political circles and does not is not likely to influence government support in the near future.

Appetite comes with eating

Dominique Arel thinks that Western leaders have understood the importance of the conflict and want to prevent Vladimir Putin from being rewarded for having tried to destroy Ukraine by taking control of its territory by force.

Andriy Zelenskyy notes that demonstrations of support of all kinds are appreciated by the Ukrainian population, but do not go far enough.

The end of the conflict, he said, requires Ukraine’s integration into the European Union and NATO so as to deter any further attack by Russia, and the allied countries should make it clear that they will proceed in this direction.

“You need a clear strategy for this to happen. Without it, there will be no lasting peace. The Russians leave us no choice,” he says.