Lula again widened the gap in the opinion polls. At the end of August, Jair Bolsonaro had caught up with some of his delay. But over the past three weeks, the gap has become significant again: between 10 and 15 points ahead for the former left-wing president, now safe from legal action. Lula is credited with 42 to 47% of the votes in the 1st round. Bolsonaro from 30 to 33% according to polling institutes. The numbers hardly move. Lula also comes first in the intentions of “second choice”, in other words, he has a few voice reserves for a probable second round at the end of October. The first projections evoke a victory for the left candidate 52% against 37 In this Brazil of 213 million inhabitants, surveys also reveal a very divided country between the Northeast of the country, the poorest region, where Lula is 40 points ahead of his rival and the South, richer , where Bolsonaro can hope to emerge slightly ahead.
Lula therefore manages his lead. He decided to give up on the next televised debate on the SBT channel scheduled for Saturday evening September 24. All the other candidates, Jair Bolsonaro like the little ones, will be there. But Lula’s campaign team has said that the ex-president will not come, officially because of serial meetings in the country. He preferred a classic one-on-one interview on Thursday with one of the channel’s star presenters. He reserves himself for the final debate, scheduled for Thursday next week, on the major TV Globo channel. It must be said that during the first debate, at the end of August, Lula appeared a little dull. He is 76, soon to be 77. And opposite, his rival, Bolsonaro, 67, presents a more dynamic face. Lula therefore favors travel and campaign spots some of which last nearly four minutes. He makes a call “to all people who love democracy, all civilized people, all people who want to build a country of peace, love, hope, joy”. Opposite Bolsonaro first campaigns on social networks, he is omnipresent on Facebook or TikTok, with also a lot of disinformation videos.
Basically, the campaign focuses first and foremost on the economic and social situation in a country where inequalities are enormous. The other subjects, the environment, security, foreign policy pass to the background. Lula promises new allowances for the poorest, job creation for women and young people in priority. Bolsonaro, he wants to continue privatizations, and with the support of part of the employers and the general staff of the army, he wants to further reduce taxes. Its record is quite catastrophic, in particular on Covid-19, the state of the Amazon or Brazil’s place in the world. A concern hovers: in the event of defeat, will the far-right president accept the verdict of the polls and will he retire peacefully? Not sure for a follower of Donald Trump.