The delay in the formation of ice cover on the St. Lawrence River for the fifth year in a row will be impossible to catch up this year, warns an expert.
Wednesday’s winter storm might have suggested otherwise, but that is not the case, says Peter Galbraith, researcher in physical oceanography at the Maurice-Lamontagne Institute.
“I expect almost no effect from the storm, since the air temperatures are relatively warm,” he explains.
And the strong winds forecast could even make the situation worse, according to the expert.
Peter Galbraith, researcher in physical oceanography at the Maurice-Lamontagne Institute.
Photo provided by Peter Galbraith
“If the wind picks up, it will inject heat into the water and it will harm the development of the ice cover,” he continues.
This unusual phenomenon, over a 30-year climatology, has lasted for 5 years.
“We should have complete cover in the estuary, we should have ice in Chaleur Bay and along the coast of New Brunswick,” observes Mr. Galbraith.
He explains that, to have complete coverage, the four months of winter, December, January, February and March, must be really cold. Which is not the case to date. This year, it was the month of December that was particularly bad, with significant amounts of rain.
“We missed it a bit to have a big cover of ice this year. I think it’s impossible,” says the researcher, adding that the forecasts for the next two weeks do not predict severe cold.
Climate change is not unrelated to the phenomenon, which could ultimately harm the giving birth of harp seals in particular. This marine mammal seeks ice cover to give birth to its young. If the ice is weakened, it therefore threatens its survival.
The researcher, however, believes that this year will not break the records of last year, where the records of low ice cover stretched until the end of January, and lasted until the end of February, before that a polar vortex hits Quebec.