“Winning the majority in the legislative elections, a few weeks after the presidential election, would be a prodigy“for the New popular, ecological and social union (Nupes), estimated this Saturday on franceinfo the political scientist Pascal Perrineau, while the Nupes organized its investiture convention in Aubervilliers this Saturday.
>> We explain everything about the New Popular Ecological and Social Union, concluded between the main left-wing parties
franceinfo: Does this united left, united within Nupes, have the means to win the legislative elections?
Winning the majority in the legislative elections, a few weeks after the presidential election, would be a miracle. Since the reform of the five-year term in the early 2000s and the reversal of the electoral calendar, the legislative elections no longer have autonomy in relation to the presidential election. They have always been a pale copy of the presidential balance of power. Because on the one hand, the electorates of the oppositions which were beaten during the presidential election are demobilized. And on the other hand, the voters who won, namely the electorate of the President of the Republic and the forces that support him, are more mobilized. There is also, in general, a high rate of abstention. So the oppositions are returned to their opposition status. And the French do not want, in a few weeks, to elect a majority which would prevent the president – whom they chose all the same with 58% of the votes cast – from governing.
franceinfo: So you don’t believe in cohabitation?
Even if one should never say “never” in political matters, the situation of a cohabitation is the most improbable scenario. Whether it is for insubordinate France, with its new allies, or whether it is for the National Rally, which, it must be remembered, was the second force before insubordinate France. So I don’t believe in an alternative majority. On the other hand, one can wonder about the status of the majority of the Republic on the move – which is now called Renaissance – with its allies. Because you can have an absolute majority for the president’s party alone. But another scenario is possible: that of a relative majority, which would lead to cohabitation within the different forces that support the President of the Republic.
franceinfo: However, Nupes has every chance of establishing itself as the main opposition force?
Of course, there is still an alliance, while the National Rally refused to ally with Reconquête! and remains in a solitary position. There, in fact, rebellious France decided to ally itself with the Socialist Party, the ecologists and the Communist Party. These are certainly not very important forces, but it must be recognized that the boss of rebellious France plays the agenda perfectly. And I believe that he is also playing here the reconstitution of the left, perhaps for the first time in its history around its extreme strength, and not around its central strength which was for a long time the Socialist Party.
franceinfo: Do you think this union can survive the legislative elections?
She will be weak. All unions are fragile, but this one will be particularly so. Indeed, I listened to Jean-Luc Mélenchon extol the charms of the union of socialists, ecologists, communists, rebels, Trotskyists and anarchists. It’s the marriage of carp and rabbit! With on one side the reformist carp, typical of what remains of the Socialist Party, and on the other the libertarian revolutionary rabbit, that is to say the Trotskyists, the anarchists or the ‘rebellious’. I think it will be very difficult to make them live together.