“A very, very high priority”

According to the recently retired Chief of Staff of the Canadian Armed Forces Wayne Eyre, expanding its submarine fleet would be a major asset for Ottawa in the current military context.

“I come from the Army. I’m an infantry officer. And you won’t find a bigger believer in submarines,” General Wayne Eyre says bluntly.

The Press met with the officer a few weeks before he retired as chief of staff of the Canadian Armed Forces on July 18. It was an opportunity for him to discuss the most pressing challenges facing his organization. The acquisition of modern submersibles to replace the Royal Canadian Navy’s old, outdated and often broken-down craft is certainly one of them.

“For me, investing in submarines is a very, very high priority,” he insists.

Why a priority?

“We are seeing a fundamental change in the character of war, the way wars are fought. We see it in Ukraine, and we see it in investment. [des autres pays] ” explains the officer.

“You now have constant surveillance capabilities. If you see something, you can target it and destroy it, at increasing distances,” he says.

He cites the massive use of drones and missiles in Ukraine, as well as investments by several countries in surveillance systems and long-range missiles, “including hypersonic missiles developed by China.” Faced with this reality, modern armies seek to reduce their visual or electronic signature, to camouflage their equipment, to make it undetectable.

Submarines that can operate discreetly across oceans, without being seen or targeted, are therefore a major asset, according to Canadian General Wayne Eyre. Especially for a country like Canada, which borders three oceans and has an economy that is highly dependent on maritime trade, he adds.

The next submersible purchased by Canada will have to tick several boxes, according to the general. First, it will have to be a realistic choice, one that respects Canada’s ability to pay. The officer has long since written off nuclear-powered submarines, which would require new port facilities and a complete reorganization of the Canadian navy.

He believes that it will also require a product that can travel very long distances, given the size of Canada’s coastline, and that can operate in the very specific conditions of the Arctic. Above all, the submarine will have to be deliverable “as quickly as possible.”

“Speed ​​of delivery will be crucial,” the officer says.

A versatile tool

At the NATO summit in Washington in early July, Canada announced that it was launching the process to formally solicit industry for the purchase of 12 conventionally powered submarines. More specific criteria are to be made public in the fall.

In its statement on the matter, the Defense Ministry stressed that Russian submarines “are extensively probing the Atlantic, Arctic and Pacific oceans” while China is “rapidly expanding its submarine fleet.”

“The new fleet will enable Canada to protect its sovereignty in a changing world, while making valuable, high-end contributions to the security of our NATO partners and allies,” said Minister Bill Blair.

This contribution will go far beyond simple deterrence against an attack, believes Professor Andrea Charron, director of the Centre for Defence and Security Studies at the University of Manitoba.

“We have a vision taken from old films that take place during the Cold War, like Hunting for Red October. We see submarines as killing machines, made to deploy ballistic missiles. But submarines are very versatile tools, they can fulfill all sorts of roles. They can follow adversaries, intercept electronic signals for intelligence purposes. They can also be excellent for diplomacy: when they come into a port, it sends a signal,” she lists.

Visits to Europe and Asia

Representatives from the Canadian Navy, the Department of National Defence and Public Services and Procurement Canada “travelled to Europe and Asia to meet with representatives of foreign countries, companies and navies that have submarines in service, under construction or in the design phase that could meet Canadian needs,” the Department of National Defence confirmed to The Press.

The companies being considered at this stage, according to the federal authorities, are TKMS (Germany), Hanwha and Hyundai (Korea), Navantia (Spain), Naval Group (France), Kawasaki and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (Japan) and Saab (Sweden). Each has its flagship submarine to offer (see other text).

Some of the manufacturers are already heavily involved in the race to win the contract, the value of which is unknown at this time.Ottawa Citizen released internal military documents that estimated it at 60 billion, but experts in various publications have put the figure up to twice as high.

Public registrations in the Lobbyists Registry show that the Germans, Swedes and Koreans have made numerous approaches to elected officials, senior civil servants, senators and representatives of the Prime Minister’s Office or the Privy Council Office to discuss the upcoming contract.

To plead their case in Ottawa, the Korean manufacturers are working with lobbyists who have previously worked for the Royal Canadian Navy: Norman Jolin, a former captain who was once posted to NATO, and Dave Hatherall, a former head of procurement.

The German firm TKMS is counting on the help of the lobbying firm Hill and Knowlton.

As for the Swedes at Saab, their representations to the Canadian government so far have been made by their Canadian president himself, Simon Carroll, a former Australian naval officer and Gulf War veteran.

Other manufacturers in the running could soon step up the pace.

Political pieces

“It’s very competitive! It’s quite rare that so many manufacturers from different countries offer their services,” says Elisabeth Gosselin-Malo, European correspondent for the specialist publication. Defense News allocated in particular to the coverage of military acquisitions.

According to the Quebec expert, the fact that Canada waited a long time to replenish its fleet opens the door to greater competition among potential suppliers. Because when it comes to submarines, “we don’t have a long history of partnership with any particular country.”

The choice of the country of origin of the next submersibles will probably have an impact that goes beyond a simple commercial transaction, believes Mr.^me Gosselin-Malo.

“It is often said that submarines are one of the most political pieces of equipment to choose,” she emphasizes.

“It involves a lot of sharing of classified information, it requires a lot of coordination between the two countries, which will often lead to other contracts, for maintenance or other things.”