A very political summer: what are we following?

A summer just before an election campaign will, of course, be a very political summer. But this will not only be the case on the provincial scene. There will be plenty of files to follow, even at the beach or at the cottage.

Justin Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh couple

They signed a political marriage contract to allow the Liberal government to govern without fear of being overthrown for the usual term of office. But it is far from certain that this marriage is going well.

The Trudeau government seems unable to do things that should be taken for granted, such as providing passports to Canadians who request them.

The NDP finds itself married to an increasingly unpopular government that is already seeking its second wind. And he fears the liberals will drag him down.

The NDP had specific demands from its platform. A drug insurance program and a dental care program, which would initially apply to children under 12 years old. Although funds have been allocated in the budget for dental care, the programs are still far from being implemented, even by passing the necessary bills.

How long will Jagmeet Singh and his party still see their interest in this agreement? This summer could be decisive.

The economic situation

François Legault is, of course, not responsible for the record inflation that is raging, any more than for a possible recession or the price of gasoline. But such events always have a deleterious effect on the popularity of outgoing governments. Ask Joe Biden!

What will the Legault government do? Will the promise of a $500 check in December if the government is re-elected be enough? Or will it be criticized by many economists who believe this is exactly the wrong thing to do in these times of high inflation?

Pierre Poilievre

The leader of the Conservative Party of Canada leadership race has almost certainly sold enough membership cards to win in the first round at the September convention.

Except that he has been, since the start of the race, his own worst enemy. From the use of cryptocurrencies to the boycott of the World Economic Forum and the Davos conferences, through the refusal of health instructions, these are all subjects that appeal to a certain clientele within the CCP but which raise questions about its ability to become the leader of a G7 country.

Now that the recruitment period for new members is over, it’s time to convince everyone. It is now that Pierre Poilievre could regret some of his most flamboyant positions.

SCOTUS

The United States Supreme Court still has to make an important decision in the coming days. This is West Virginia v. EPA which affects the ability of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to regulate greenhouse gas emissions.

The Conservatives’ thesis is that this is an illegal delegation of law-making power from Congress to officials of a government agency.

In effect, if the Court agrees with West Virginia, it will become virtually impossible for the United States to fulfill its obligations under international agreements on global warming. Not good news for the neighboring country…

Eric Duhaime

The popularity of the Conservative Party of Quebec has mainly been based on the unpopularity of health measures during the pandemic. But the party and its leader must now shift into second gear and rely on more than the will to “bring the anger” into parliament. The polls are currently interesting, especially in the Quebec region. But that doesn’t guarantee anything. After all, at the federal level, Maxime Bernier never managed to get elected in Beauce under the banner of his new party.

Paul St-Pierre Plamondon

The leader of the Parti Québécois is unable to bring his party out of the cellar of the polls, with the real possibility that his deputation will be reduced to one or two members only on the evening of October 3.

In fact, the situation is very similar to that of the Bloc Québécois in 2015 when the party was going nowhere under Mario Beaulieu, who launched an SOS to Gilles Duceppe to try to save the furniture.

Everyone denies that we could appeal to Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet. But the two situations are sufficiently similar that we can no longer exclude a Duceppe scenario.

Boris Johnson

Caught up by his escapades, the British Prime Minister is now comfortably installed at the top of the list of leaders who may not make it through the summer.