A contract of 62.8 million US dollars for a player who has not yet scored 60 goals in the National League is of course generous. And risky. Afterwards, who is the Canadian’s best scorer?
Cole Caufield.
Who do you applaud the loudest at the Bell Center?
Cole Caufield.
Who is the most marketable star on the team?
Cole Caufield.
The young American is talented, competent and charismatic. It’s worth its weight in gold. Especially within an organization that for 30 years has struggled to find attackers with a similar profile. Yes, Caufield is a one-dimensional player. No, he will never win the Selke Trophy. But how many other players in the entire NHL are as effective at outmaneuvering opposing goaltenders?
Very little.
I have often written this season about anticipated goals. What is it again? My favorite stat. A formula that assigns a value to each shot, based on the historical success rate of all shots taken from the same point on the ice. This identifies the counters that are making the most of their opportunities.
A normal player, who would have shot from exactly the same places as Caufield, under identical circumstances, would have ended the season with 15 goals. Caufield managed 26. The small winger therefore scored 11 goals more than expected. It is enormous. Especially since he missed half of the season due to a shoulder injury. Over a full season, he was heading for 19 more goals than expected. Made there, it is beyond huge.
It’s mammoth.
That would have put him ahead of David Pastrnak (+17). Ahead of Connor McDavid (+16). Ahead of Mikko Rantanen (+16). Tied with Jared McCann. Only Leon Draisaitl (+20) would have beaten him. Great company: The German has finished among the top five NHL scorers for the past five seasons.
This tells you how exceptional Cole Caufield’s profile is. We understand very well the interest for the Canadian to agree with him in the long term. However, Caufield was not obliged to accept the offer. He could have imitated Jason Robertson of the Dallas Stars and demanded a four-year contract. This would have allowed him to achieve full autonomy more quickly, and to benefit more from an expected increase in the salary cap.
The general manager of the Canadian, Kent Hughes, convinced him to stay in Montreal longer. A big win for the team. A four-year contract would have forced the Habs to speed up their reconstruction, to make the most of the simultaneous presence of Caufield and Nick Suzuki in the lineup. Not quite winning conditions. For immediate help, the Canadiens probably would have had to trade prospects whose assessment is still ongoing — with the risks you can guess.
Now that Suzuki is under contract for another seven years, and Caufield for eight, Kent Hughes will take advantage of more time to roll out his plan. The GM of the Canadian will also be able to better predict the payroll of his long-term training. So many factors that justify the eight-year agreement.
What about Caufield’s salary?
It is neither too low nor too high. Average of what other mavericks have hit in the past. Vladimir Tarasenko’s contract, for example, was almost identical. Eight years, 60 million. Except Tarasenko was 24 when he signed. Caufield has only 22. Also, with the planned increases in the salary cap, Caufield’s contract will weigh less heavily on the total mass of the Canadiens than that of Tarasenko on that of the St. Louis Blues, between 2015 and last season. .
So yes, 62.8 million for a player who hasn’t scored 60 NHL goals yet is a lot of money. But it is a calculated risk, which is worth it.