a “threat of implosion of the Russian system”, according to a military expert

A “deadly threat” and a risk of “civil war” : Vladimir Putin lambasted on Saturday June 24 a “treason” and displayed his firmness. A few hours earlier, Yevgeny Prigojine, the leader of the paramilitary group Wagner, claimed to have seized the headquarters of the Russian army in the city of Rostov, and he said to himself “ready to die” with its 25,000 men for “liberate the Russian people”. For General Dominique Trinquand, former head of the French military mission to the United Nations (UN), this may be a turning point in the war in Ukraine. The situation remains unclear, and the possibility exists of a “handling”, but General Trinquand points to franceinfo “a threat of implosion of the Russian system”.

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franceinfo: Evguéni Prigojine therefore claims to have entered Russia with his Wagner troops, in the city of Rostov in particular, to “overthrow the military command”. Should we take him at his word?

General Trinquand: Pictures do indeed show elements of Wagner in Rostov. I note in passing the terminology used which is interesting since it says “to return to Russia leaving the Donbass”. However, I thought I understood that the Donbass had been annexed. The second point is that this announced rebellion of Prigojine can also be a manipulation. It is recalled that since the start, Evguéni Prigojine opposes Sergei Choïgou [le ministre de la Défense] and Valery Gerasimov [le chef de l’état-major].

Prigozhin says he has 25,000 men. Is it a verifiable number? There are 25,000 mercenaries at Wagner?

It’s quite likely. He had reached 35,000 men. He has sent a number of them back to their homes, which worries quite a few populations who see criminals returning to Russian towns and villages. But 25,000 men is something possible.

Criminals, because Wagner recruited a lot from the prisons of Russia to send men to the front. Can these 25,000 men really be a threat to the Russian army?

The threat of implosion of the Russian system is something that I have pointed out for a long time. It’s still incredible to think that a state like the Russian state is forced to rely on militias with mercenaries in addition to the army. And to value them, in addition, by giving them the possibility of obtaining the only victory – if that is a victory – in Bakhmout a few weeks ago. There is a lot of talk about Wagner, but there are 300 militias in Russia right now and therefore there is a possibility of implosion, of joining or not joining the army or parts of the army. We remember the links of General Sergei Surovikin, who had commanded operations in Ukraine at the end of 2022, with Wagner. [En mai 2023, Evguéni Prigojine avait affirmé que le général Sourovikine prendrait désormais “toutes les décisions concernant les opérations militaires de Wagner en coopération avec le ministère russe de la Défense”. Il saluait en lui “la seule personne avec des étoiles de général d’armée qui sait combattre”.] All of this is extremely disturbing.

This means that the Russian army can potentially be destabilized, including on the front in Ukraine.

Prigojine announces that all this has nothing to do with what is happening on the front in Ukraine. However, you understand that if a Ukrainian offensive is successful and at the same time there are uprisings in Russia, it is extremely worrying overall for the stability of the regime.

This means that Vladimir Putin himself could be threatened with some kind of coup d’etat, whatever Prigojine says.

This is where it remains extremely vague. Because if Putin manages to show that he holds the reins despite this attempt at rebellion, he shows that he is the guarantor of Russian unity. This is where we have a little difficulty in distinguishing between manipulation and reality in this announced rebellion.

Returning to the situation on the front, Prigogine asserts that the Russian army is suffering defeats. However, until now, we were told that the counter-offensive, especially on the Ukrainian side, was taking time. What is it really?

It is extremely difficult to know. First, because the Ukrainians maintain absolute secrecy. And they are right. And the information, paradoxically, comes only from the Russian side. So today, what we know is that the ground offensive began a little over a fortnight ago, that its purpose was to define the axes of progression on which the offensive could really be launched. . Currently, there is only 15%, roughly, of the Ukrainian army which is concerned by the advances on three axes. We are expectant. There is a week-long break, time for troop movements.

We are therefore still in this phase of “shaping the front”, that is to say that the Ukrainians are still in the process of striking the Russian defense system in depth. We are not yet in the moment of the breakthrough.

Yes, the deep strikes continue. We have seen sabotage, missile strikes on logistical axes, in particular in Crimea, the aim of which is of course to cut off the Russian forces who are on the front lines of their logistics. But on the other hand, there are also these nine Ukrainian brigades which must move to get in place towards the axis which has been assigned to them. And it’s a bit like this sign that we expect first and foremost.

For now, Ukraine is not reacting to these events. On the Russian side, it is to this armed rebellion of Prigogine and the Wagner group.

But I think they are like us. They try to understand, they try to see things clearly.

Is this potentially a turning point in this war in Ukraine?

This can be a turning point in two ways. Either because the rebellion is real and therefore the stability of the regime is in question. Either it is a manipulation and this manipulation hides something else, that is to say a disappointment, perhaps, on the ground and on the front. These two hypotheses, in any case, lead us to say that something is happening and that we must be very attentive to everything that we will see in the hours and days to come.