Summer officially arrives in a fortnight, and a rebound of Covid-19 is felt. Monday, June 6, there were 22,000 cases per day against 18,000 at the end of May, an increase in contamination of 26% in one week. The reproduction rate of the virus is approaching 1, at 0.9.
Figures #Covid19 :
• 35 people died in hosp. (03/06), down over 7 days. (-9)
• 390 hospital admissions (03/06), down over 7 days. (-14)
• 6,184 positive cases (06/06), up over 7 days. (+1,511)
➡️ more info: https://t.co/4yLCXFmCW8 pic.twitter.com/v2ZT1VB7jS— CovidTracker Bot (@CovidTracker_fr) June 6, 2022
If we consider the current dynamic, explains epidemiologist Mircea Sofonea, we are well at the start of a new wave which could last a month, a month and a half, so until mid-July. But difficult to know how high this wave will go. At this point, she’s not too worried. To give a benchmark, it is currently 16 times lower than in January and six times lower than in April. In addition, the hospitalization figures remain stable with around forty people who are admitted to intensive care every day because of the Covid.
The relaxation of barrier gestures is not the only cause. Because beyond the end of the wearing of the mask and the resumption of a “normal” social life, this recovery is also supported by the appearance of the sub-variants of Omicron called BA.4 and BA.5. They are not more dangerous but they are on average 10% more contagious than BA.2 which was responsible for the April wave, and they will logically become the majority. But in South Africa or Portugal, where these sub-variants have already taken over, the hospitalization figures have remained stable, which shows that against BA.4 and BA.5, we keep herd immunity against the serious forms, thanks to vaccines or past infections.
So the question of the need to be vaccinated at the start of the school year arises, but not necessarily for everyone. At the end of May, the High Health Authority recommended a booster vaccine in the fall only for those over 65 and immunocompromised people. In reality, the situation that awaits us this winter is still unclear. It will depend on the appearance (or not) of new variants and their profile. But one thing is certain: modeling work carried out at the University of Montpellier shows that vaccination alone will not be enough to limit the impact of the winter waves to come on the hospital. In any case, it will have to be combined periodically, in winter, with barrier gestures and ventilation measures for the premises.