Nearly seven months after the start of the war in Ukraine, the holding of “annexation referendums” in four Ukrainian separatist zones “is a sign of panic from Russian power“, analyzes Friday September 23 on franceinfo Cédric Mas, military historian and president of the Action Resilience Institute. Vladimir Poutine has advanced the date of these elections which will take place from Friday September 23 to Tuesday September 27.
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Mouscou thus defends the “right to self-determination” inhabitants of these regions. The historian denounces “a diversion of the principle of the self-determination of peoples to choose their destiny”. According to him, “these are ballots that will be neither free nor sincere”.
franceinfo: Why is Vladimir Putin bringing forward the referendums?
Cedric Mas: It is a sign of panic from the Russian power, which is faced with an undeniable current military defeat following the successful counter-offensives and the breathtaking maneuvers of the two offensives in Kherson and Kharkiv with in particular this breakthrough, this dislocation and this resumption of several thousands of square kilometres. We had referendums that were scheduled for September 11, which had been postponed given the fighting announced a priori at the beginning of November. And there, he rushes things.
The very words referendum and ballot are completely overused. These are ballots that will be neither free nor sincere.
Cédric Mas, historianat franceinfo
The electoral rolls are not complete. Most of the inhabitants fled before or at the start of the invasion. We even have mobile offices. The result is already recorded since Russia is already organizing the forced Russification of these annexed territories. This is a diversion of the principle of the self-determination of peoples to choose their destiny.
What exactly is Vladimir Putin looking for by organizing these referendums?
Once these territories are annexed, it will be able to legitimately mobilize, to round up soldiers as it is currently doing in Russia to send them by force to the front, with the consequences in terms of military effectiveness. The second point is that it will make it possible to legitimize its propaganda since it will make it possible to invoke the fact that its invasion was indeed a special operation to come to the aid of populations who were mistreated by the government of kyiv. What is really his thesis, this story completely unfounded in facts, which he tells from the beginning. And finally, the third point is really this haste which shows a panic on the part of the Russian government, like this haste in a mobilization which is the first since 1941 in Russia, that is to say since the invasion by Nazi Germany from the USSR at the time. These are very strong acts that show haste, but in reality are just acts of propaganda. It is to us that it is addressed and to the Ukrainian will to resist, that it is addressed above all.
These 300,000 men that Vladimir Putin seeks to mobilize will be at the front in how long, several months, several weeks?
Rather in weeks. We lack the information to give you a more precise deadline. We don’t know if it’s going to be new units being raised, in which case it’s going to take a lot longer than just refills. But we will have to equip them. It’s not a weapon issue as such. Russia has the extraordinarily large stockpiles of the former USSR in terms of weapons. The real problem is with the other equipment. Be aware that a number of Russian units are already equipped with stocks of uniforms taken at the start of the war from seized Ukrainian army depots. It’s not simply to try to fool the enemy, but simply because they don’t have equipment like helmets and uniforms.