Increase the sanctions against deserters, “It’s a sign of feverishnessby Vladimir Putin, “we see effects that are dangerous for his power”, Explain Alexis Vahlas, former political adviser on military and civilian operations for NATO and the European Union, Sunday September 25 on franceinfo. Alexis Vahlas, who is also responsible for the European security and international stability program at SciencesPo Strasbourg, “don’t think this regime can go on for long.”
Vladimir Putin has signed a decree that increases the penalties for Russian deserters or those who refuse to fight during mobilization. The text which entered into force on Saturday provides for up to 10 years in prison. These legislative changes come as Russia decreed this week a partial mobilization of reservists to fight in Ukraine.
franceinfo: What do you think of Vladimir Putin’s decision?
Alexis Vahlas: It is a sign of feverishness. There is a certain continuity in his actions. We continue to deny the fact that there are military defeats, and we continue to frighten the West. It’s part of his game but the problem is that he’s starting to scare his people. We knew it was split but here we see effects that are dangerous for its power.
What impact can this decree have on the morale of Russian troops?
For those who are on the ground this will not change things. But if you go there only because you want to avoid prison, that’s not enough motivation to make a good fighter and experience a traumatic episode of war.
Will the Russian men fleeing the mobilization prevent Vladimir Putin from reaching his goal of 300,000 additional troops?
Maybe that won’t prevent it directly, but it continues to weaken a regime that is authoritarian and no longer has any checks and balances. Even during the Soviet Union, apart from the Stalin period, we never saw that. We don’t know what’s going on inside, what the other economic and political forces close to the Russian presidency think.
“I think anything can happen and that one day there will be a depoutinisation as there was a de-Stalinisation. The system has been completely dysfunctional economically for decades. We see how deficient it is economically. military. I don’t think this regime can go on for long.”
Alexis Vahlas, former NATO military and civilian operations policy adviserat franceinfo
Are Vladimir Putin’s allies, notably India and China, changing their position?
This is a very important point. On the moral and legal level, there is a great disappointment to see this China which for 15 years has been playing the card of multilateralism, of respect for the UN charter and which there says nothing in the face of such a violation. But from a political point of view it may be very useful because who can hold the Russian president at bay today? It’s China. We know that there is coordination about this crisis between Americans and Chinese. So maybe it’s the Chinese most effective today to say that the red line is “no use of nuclear weapons”.