A short guide to a (very) political summer

In politics, there is no off season, but this summer will be even busier than usual – partly due to the American presidential election next November, but also to the dissolution, in France, of the Assembly national by President Emmanuel Macron. In short, the political summer will be busy. Here are the important dates.

June 24: By-election in Toronto–St. Paul’s

The riding has been solidly Liberal since 1993. The last time it voted Conservative, Brian Mulroney was prime minister. If the Liberals were to lose this seat, it would cause serious questions about Justin Trudeau’s leadership. And it could set the tone for a difficult summer for the prime minister.

June 27: first debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump

They will debate even if they are not officially nominated as candidates of their party. Only one other debate is planned, on September 10. This shows the importance of this meeting. This first debate is organized by CNN, which means that it will take place in a studio, without an audience and with a moderator who will have the possibility of cutting the candidates’ microphones. Question of having a less cacophonous debate.

July 4: UK elections

While the whole of Europe seems to want to turn to the right, the British seem on the way to inflicting a historic defeat on the conservatives and electing a first Labor government since 2010.

July 7: second round of legislative elections in France

Whatever the result, we risk still wondering why Emmanuel Macron decided to dissolve the National Assembly after the European elections. But it will be interesting to see the state of the forces after the explosion of political families which followed the start of these legislative elections. In any case, the time for settling scores has already begun in the current presidential majority, which does not bode well.

July 11: Donald Trump’s sentencing

In the case of the falsification of his company’s books to conceal his payments to the porn actress Stormy Daniels. He should avoid prison, given his clean criminal record, but he does not need this reminder of his troubles a few days before the start of the Republican Congress.

Somewhere in July: Hunter Biden sentencing

President Joe Biden’s son will be sentenced for illegal possession of a firearm. The date hasn’t been set yet, but it appears it will be this summer, and it will no doubt be used by Republicans to embarrass the president.

July 15-18: Republican National Convention in Milwaukee

Donald Trump will be inaugurated as his party’s candidate and will deliver a major speech on Thursday evening. An exercise which does not necessarily win votes, but which can lose them. That said, the exercise will be much riskier for the Democrats a few weeks later.

July 26-August 11: Paris Olympic Games

The Olympics are always a political event, but not always for the right reasons. The challenge is always to preserve the atmosphere of this meeting of the best athletes while ensuring the security of the event. A good performance by Canadian athletes almost always provides a good image opportunity for the party in power.

July 28: presidential election in Venezuela

Long the bane of the United States, President Nicolás Maduro faces a single opposition candidate – after having banned the candidacy of several opponents. But this does not guarantee the regularity of the vote. Which could make it one of the issues of the American electoral campaign.

August 10: congress of the youth wing of the PLQ

For a long time this congress was the meeting place for the return to politics in Quebec. But those days are over and the congress has become a one-day event. This year, we can expect that all the candidates for the leadership of the Liberal Party of Quebec will meet there, with young people automatically having a third of the votes when choosing the leader.

August 19-22: Democratic National Convention in Chicago

The Democrats’ great fear is reliving the chaos of 1968 in Chicago, when the choice of presidential candidate took second place because of demonstrations against the Vietnam War. Which was one of the reasons for the – very close – election of Republican Richard Nixon. This year, it is rather the situation in the Gaza Strip which could give rise to possibly violent demonstrations.

September 10: second (and final) Biden-Trump debate

Organized by ABC News, this second debate will be held with rules similar, essentially, to those of the first. A debate which will take place two months before polling day, and which will therefore not necessarily still be fresh in the memory of voters at that time. Which, ultimately, should suit the two candidates, who are not recognized as very efficient in this type of exercise.

This column will be on hiatus for the summer. Back on August 18. Until then, happy National Day and happy holidays!

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