To save face, a union must scratch that of the government. Otherwise, their members will be left with a doubt: could we have achieved more by being more combative?
In this context, we can guess the result of the strike votes which began to be taken on Monday and which will continue until October 13. The big power plants are ready to take to the streets. Around Halloween, we should see inflatable mascots with François Legault as a scarecrow.
The strike seems inevitable. Especially since it has been a long time since the unions have been so encouraged to take a hard line.
This time, they stand together. They could call strikes by sector or region. Or even disengage everywhere, but for a short period. With an escalation that could lead to an unlimited general strike.
The government has no interest in making concessions now. No matter what he says, the unions will take to the streets. Better to let the steam out before opening your game.
The fact remains that this time, the unions feel that the balance of power is to their advantage.
First, essential services were redefined. Executives will therefore have to replace them. The pressure would thus increase on the employer to reach an agreement.
Then, there was the increase in remuneration – 30% – that the deputies voted for. After years of freezing, they deserved a catch-up. Former Supreme Court judge Claire L’Heureux-Dubé found an adequate formula in 2013: increase their salaries, but reduce their pension plan, which is likened to a “Ferrari”. However, the CAQ commissioned a new report with a restricted mandate which allowed them to inflate their salaries without adjusting their pension. If it’s good enough for them, why deny it to others?
Finally, there is the astonishing rejection by the Sûreté du Québec (SQ) police officers of their agreement in principle. This compromise already seemed generous: a 21% increase in their pay over five years, more than the 9% offered to other state employees. The SQ agents compared themselves to their better paid Montreal counterparts.
The major unions will not want to conclude an agreement that risks being rejected by their members. They will be even more pugnacious. On the other hand, they see the danger.
All collective negotiations include an element of theater. From the beginning, the parties guess what the final agreement will look like. They start by mobilizing their members, then prepare the landing to sell the agreement.
The increase in remuneration of deputies and the rejection of police officers facilitate the first stage, but complicate the second. The unions wonder if their members will be as die-hard as the SQ police officers.
The unions believe they have the support of the population.
The Quebec model is cracking everywhere. The state is struggling to recruit and retain staff in daycares, schools, hospitals and courthouses.
According to an SOM survey, 75% of Quebecers believe that improving the working conditions of union members would have a positive impact on public services. And 56% judge the government offer “insufficient” or “very insufficient”.
However, this survey does not tell the whole story.
It was commissioned by the unions – if the questions focused on the bill being passed on to taxpayers, the answer would have been different. Each percentage point increase translates to $600 million for the state.
In addition, the exercise asks respondents to comment on what they do not know. Only the departure offer from Quebec is public. It’s a floor. During negotiations, the employer offers bonuses for certain professions. However, these sectoral offers remain confidential.
In 2020, beneficiary attendants, nurses and teachers received an increase which was only revealed when the agreement was signed. This should happen again for those who educate young people and care for the sick. But in the public square, Sonia LeBel cannot comment on the details.
Difficult to judge confidential talks, especially for the organization of work. Quebec and the unions both say they want to improve it.
Teachers want to reduce the ratio of students per class. However, this would risk worsening the shortage. Quebec is proposing to lighten their other tasks. We would like to believe it, but the promises to eliminate paperwork follow one another without the teachers seeing the effect.
Regardless of the operations of spinone thing is certain: if those who deliver public services are unhappy, everyone will pay the price.
This is the background to the strike threats. An agreement by Christmas is not impossible. Behind the scenes, at least, that’s what they say, fingers crossed…
In the negotiation theater, everyone stares at each other at the finish line, waiting to see who will take the last step. All that’s missing is the music of Ennio Morricone.
And to complicate the dynamic, union centers could begin to observe each other more closely. Because with health care reform, union certifications will drop – there are over a hundred, and only four will remain. There will be more losers than winners, and a positioning battle begins.
Autumn promises to be both short and warm.