The suspense in Türkiye will likely continue for another two weeks. Outgoing President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in power for two decades, was neck and neck on Sunday evening in voting intentions against his main social-democratic rival, Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, stronger than ever when the country of the elections deemed crucial.
Turkish voters — 64 million in number — turned out in droves to elect their president. Hours after polling stations across the country closed, no one could predict the outcome of this pivotal poll in Turkey’s modern history.
The Turks thus had to choose between a president in power for twenty years and borrowing an authoritarian direction and an aspiring president at the head of a coalition of six parties.
“We don’t know yet if the election is over with this first round, but if the people take us to the second round, we will respect it,” said the outgoing president late at night, from the balcony of his headquarters. left. He also claimed a “majority” of seats for his side in parliament. The winner must obtain a majority of 50% of the votes plus one, under penalty of a second round on May 28. This scenario, which would represent a first in the country, seemed very likely late Sunday evening, in Turkey.
At the time of writing, Anadolu Agency data, with more than 97% of ballot boxes counted, gave Recep Tayyip Erdogan 49.35% of the vote, while his main rival garnered 44.97% of the vote. A third candidate, Sinan Ogan, is credited with around 5% of the votes.
“The fact that we are going to the second round will prove that, for the first time, Erdogan’s leadership is challenged by almost half of the population”, underlines Sami Aoun, professor emeritus of political science at the Sherbrooke University. It would be the first second round in a presidential election in Turkey in a hundred years of existence, he said.
Like the outgoing president, Kemal Kiliçdaroglu also promised victory to his voters, in a speech held in the middle of the night in Ankara. “If our nation asks for a second round, we gladly accept it. And we will absolutely win this second round, ”he said, surrounded by representatives of the six parties in his coalition. Earlier in the day, Istanbul mayor and coalition member Ekrem Imamoglu criticized the state news agency Anadolu, accusing it of manipulating the vote count.
The ruling party, on the other hand, defended itself: “Despite errors, the system works. Accusing institutions in panic mode makes no sense,” said one of its representatives, Ali Ihan Yavuz.
Suspicion of manipulation, but no proof
The electoral commission, kept under close police surveillance, has not reported any incident of electoral fraud at this stage.
Nevertheless, these potential frauds “concern everyone on both sides”, says professor in the Department of History at the University of Quebec in Montreal and specialist in Turkey Stefan Winter. For example, in the last municipal elections of 2019, the opposition party won the mayoralty of Istanbul for the first time in years. Erdogan had cried fraud and, a new poll later, he had won the elections.
“We quickly believe in conspiracy theories here” because most of the media are controlled by the government, notes the expert. “So yes, people are nervous”, even if, for the moment, “we haven’t heard anything” that would confirm these suspicions of electoral fraud.
Kemal Kiliçdaroglu is betting a lot on this democratic transparency for his election. “We missed democracy,” said the social democrat, all smiles, when casting his ballot in Ankara. “You will see, spring will return to this country, God willing, and it will last forever,” he added, using one of his campaign slogans.
Thus, after several successive defeats in recent years, Kemal Kiliçdaroglu has managed, by leading “a very clean campaign”, to “impress a lot of people, especially young people”, even if the president “remains extremely popular”, at the outside major centres, observes Stefan Winter.
Turkey at a crossroads
A change of course in this large Muslim country, but secular, would also be well received by most of Turkey’s Western partners. This NATO member country enjoys a unique position between Europe and the Middle East, and is a major diplomatic player.
The head of American diplomacy, Antony Blinken, recently described Erdogan’s Turkey as a “difficult ally”. The Turkish president, whom some compare to a sultan, has refused to apply Western sanctions against Russia and limits, year after year, the freedom of the press in his country.
“He closed newspapers critical of him. He forced many people into exile. To the point where today Turkey, along with China, is one of the worst countries for freedom of expression,” observes Magnus Norell, assistant researcher at the Washington Institute and senior policy adviser at the Brussels-based European Endowment for Democracy. .
Facing him, the opposition candidate enjoys a certain political virginity which makes him difficult to grasp.
Kiliçdaroglu made a late entry into active politics, in his fifties. He was first elected in 2002, when Erdogan came to power as a deputy from Istanbul. One of his greatest feats of arms in his career is to have sat at the head of Turkish social security.
He has also made benevolence a promising campaign theme. The two heart-shaped hands are his trademark. We can see him in one of his campaign videos, in his kitchen, quite simply, talking about the rise in the price of onions, which has become a symbol of popular discontent in this country. In 2022 alone, its price per kilo has increased sixfold, with a devastating effect on household budgets.
“For five years, since the currency has plummeted and there is an inflation problem in the country, there are more and more people in the population who cannot buy spices and their groceries basic,” notes Stefan Winter. A difficult economic context which contributed to the rise in popularity of the opposition, he analyzes.
“The first ten years of President Erdogan were marked by a dazzling, very positive economic development, which everyone recognizes today, and a political opening, a new wave of democratization after regimes dominated by the military. And then, it started to change after ten years, and it has become really critical for five years” due to the difficult economic context, he explains.
The major earthquake in the country in February has also highlighted the problems of corruption in the country, where the government has tolerated the construction of buildings that do not meet the country’s safety standards, adds Mr. Winter. “All these factors explain why we have such a close election now,” summarizes Magnus Norell.
Thus, a few months after these deadly shocks in Turkey, a political earthquake could well shake the country. In all likelihood, we will have to wait another two weeks before knowing if this upheaval will indeed take place.
One thing is certain, “this election is really crucial, remarks Magnus Norell. She will decide which path Turkey will follow. And it will have an effect on neighboring countries in a significant way”.
With Agence France-Presse