A payment default by Russia would have “a rather limited direct effect on the rest of the world”, estimated Tuesday Gita Gopinath, number 2 of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
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Ms. Gopinath stressed that the amounts of the payment deadlines that Moscow must honor “are relatively low on a global scale”.
“This does not represent a systemic risk to the global economy,” she added, while pointing out that some banks with greater exposure, however, could be hit harder.
Despite heavy sanctions against Moscow since the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has paid off its debts.
Rating agency S&P recently downgraded Russia’s debt rating from CCC to CC, placing it now two notches below the rating of defaulting countries.
If a payment default had a limited economic impact, the Managing Director of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, on the other hand, stressed that it was necessary to expect significant consequences from the war in Ukraine on the world economy.
The Fund will publish its next updated forecasts on April 19, during its spring meetings.
The war in Ukraine will lead the IMF to revise its forecasts downwards, more strongly than it did in January (-0.5 points to 4.4%).
The global economy should remain “in positive territory”, but a number of countries, starting with Russia and Ukraine as well as neighboring countries directly affected by the conflict, will be in recession, Ms Georgieva said.
More generally, “the very worrying impact is inflation,” she continued. The IMF expected price pressure to ease over the year. However, it is increasing.
The conflict in Ukraine is also changing international trade, observed Gita Gopinath.
“The energy trade will never be the same after the war in Ukraine,” she stressed as countries strive to cut their dependence on Russia for the benefit in particular of the United States.
Moreover, “we are likely to see some countries reconsider the share of certain currencies in their reserves. So fragmentation is indeed a significant concern,” she added.
Asked about the risk of Russia using cryptocurrencies to evade sanctions, she pointed out that the IMF monitors the evolution of these currencies.
“We don’t really have a clear view that this particular war triggered an increase in cryptocurrency usage,” she said.
She expects recent events to accelerate central bank scrutiny of digital currencies.
“We have to be particularly careful about regulation,” she said, explaining that it was necessary to ensure that new forms of digital currency did not allow their misuse and circumvention of restrictions, particularly in emerging and emerging economies. in development.