“Ja” or “Nej”. Yes or no. The choice appears on the front page of all the Danish press on Wednesday June 1st. Yes or No, do you want Denmark to participate in European defense policy from now on? This is the question posed to the four and a half million voters of this northern European country, 43,000 km2 between Germany and Sweden. The polling stations are open until 8 p.m. and the result is expected at the end of the evening.
The “yes” vote is a big favourite: between 15 and 30 points ahead according to the polls. Almost the entire Danish political class has campaigned in favor of this rapprochement. Starting with the Danish Prime Minister. For Social Democrat Mette Frederiksen: “When times are historic, historic decisions are needed”. Several parties formerly opposed to this integration into European defense policy have joined the “yes” camp. In fact, only the two extreme right parties and a radical left movement are campaigning for the “no”. The extreme right in particular considers that the protection of NATO is sufficient, NATO of which Denmark is a part. The extreme right denounces in advance the interference of Brussels in the Danish defense.
It’s a small revolution because we’re talking about a country, Denmark, which is very turbulent in its relationship with Europe. Denmark has certainly been part of the European Union since 1973. But it has made it a specialty to say “no” to more integration and each time by referendum. “No” to the Maastricht Treaty in 1992. “No” to the euro in 2000: Denmark still uses its own currency, the crown. “No” to participation in several European policies, such as justice or home affairs. It was in 2015.
After the No in Maastricht, and to avoid a deadlock in Europe, Denmark had obtained a whole series of derogatory clauses, “opt outs”, hence its continued exclusion from defense policy. This means, for example, that Copenhagen, for 30 years, has not taken part in meetings of European Defense Ministers or that its army cannot be involved in a European Union military mission. Denmark is not a Eurosceptic country: more than 60% of Danes have confidence in Europe (much more than in France), on the other hand it is traditionally very reluctant to the idea of greater integration. So that still casts doubt on the result of the referendum on June 1. A “yes” to Europe would be a first for 30 years.
It was really the war in Ukraine that changed everything. It’s like NATO membership for the northern neighbours, Sweden and Finland. Denmark feels threatened. In fact, Russia is quite close geographically: the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad is only 350 km from the Danish island of Bornholm in the Baltic Sea. In addition, the Danes have painful memories of the presence of Russian soldiers at the end of the Second World War, especially on this island of Bornholm. The fear vis-à-vis Moscow is therefore reactivated. This is what suggests a victory of the “yes” in the referendum in Copenhagen. This also explains the major effort in military investment: as in Germany, the defense budget will soon be increased to 2% of gross domestic product. So it is clearly a chain effect of the war in Ukraine, one more.