Emmanuel Macron had won 66% of the vote in 2017, he obtained 59% on Sunday, according to estimates. Victory without appeal, it goes without saying, but which also resonates like a warning and an injunction. To what concrete extent will this president, whose re-election is in itself an achievement, therefore hear this warning during his second term? The French voters who voted for Marine Le Pen on Sunday at a record 41% are not all, it has been said enough, from the far right. Disguising her image, the leader of the National Rally (RN) will have succeeded by “social populism” in channeling the very real social anger of “ordinary people” which percolates and explodes everywhere in our democracies. Which is obviously not without referring, beyond a mechanically left-right reading of the world, to the effectiveness with which Donald Trump captured the ire of the “people” against the “elites”.
Had he, by the way, doubled Mme Le Pen in the first round of the presidential election on April 10, which he almost succeeded in doing, and it was Jean-Luc Mélenchon (La France insoumise – Popular Union), embodying the radical left located at the other end of the political spectrum, who would have carried this anger… by carrying it in otherwise less conservative terms. It didn’t take long.
True to himself, Macron played on all fronts during the electoral campaign – a campaign from which he emerged victorious by having invested as little as possible –, seeking to make this election sometimes a call to “block” the RN , sometimes a vote of support for his ideas. Bet won. Its score of 58% casts a wide net. Still, between liberal jargon and alleged “speak frankly”, he will have objectively contributed to letting Marine Le Pen, like never before, slowly but surely take her place in the French political space. The fact is that the posture of Mr. Macron for five years has participated in the rightwardization of national political life.
The idea that Marine Le Pen, having smoothed her image, has evolved in the direction of a refocused political message certainly does not preclude distrust. “Our ideas have never risen to such a level,” she said, taking note of her defeat on Sunday. Which isn’t reassuring. Because the fact remains that the empathy that she so effectively displayed for the “people” is of variable geometry. Its program remains staunchly xenophobic, planning to abolish ius soli and introduce legal discrimination between nationals and foreigners – what the RN calls “national preference” – in terms of employment, social housing, access to health care and social benefits. Other politicians starred in this film — that of a momentarily adapted image of openness and moderation.
It then happens that the results of this presidential election present Mr. Macron with a challenge of legitimacy, if not credibility, in view not only of an abstention (around 28%, this time) which widens from election to election, but also in view of the rising proportion of blank protest votes. A sign that the health of French representative democracy leaves something to be desired and that “voting is not very useful” for a large part of an electorate who sees its ruling class basically doing as it pleases. This crisis of confidence in our democracies is particularly acute among young people: in the first round, two weeks ago, the abstention rate among 18-24 year olds exceeded 40%.
What will Mr. Macron do there? The latter took note on Sunday of this democratic desertion and the deep economic insecurity which affects large sections of French society. Ostentatiously surrounded by young people on his arrival at the Champ-de-Mars, in the evening, he promised in his speech delivered against the backdrop of the Eiffel Tower “to find an answer to the anger that is expressed”.
Except that, starting from a center-left posture in 2017, this “champion of renewal has become the maintainer of the established neoliberal order”, to use the words of sociologist Edgar Morin. Stifled, the great growl of the yellow vests. Mr. Macron, for his part, analyzed the online media Mediapartwill have defended during his first five-year term the idea of a “strong-weak State”, strong against social demands, weak “in its relation to the market”.
Never mind. Between the two rounds, Mr. Macron will have found it useful to return to heal his left by promising in particular to make France “a great ecological nation”, pricking the passage of ideas to Mélenchon and the candidate of the greens, Yannick Jadot . On Sunday, he promised for the umpteenth time to open a “new era”. Credible, this moult? One thing is certain, it is clear that Macron benefited from the postponement of a good part of the 7.7 million votes obtained by Mélenchon in the first round. It would be useful for the credibility of this “new era” that he takes this into account, once the legislative elections of next June have been tied up.