We can talk for hours about Justin Trudeau’s personality and the decisions that have made him unpopular. But in the end, the Liberal leader’s woes can be summed up in two words: time and money.
There are several other reasons for this, of course. But time and money act like two great groundswells that overwhelm him.
When analyzing his mandate over the long term, the observation is striking.
First, time. His popularity has been declining gradually and steadily, as evidenced by the drop in his approval rating over the past nine years. Beyond the small seasonal variations, the trend allows one to draw a line, and it leads downward.
Poll analyst Éric Grenier carried out the exercise based on Abacus Data polls1.
The pandemic created a brief rallying effect around Mr. Trudeau. The public aligned itself with elected officials who were leading the charge against the virus. But it is unlikely that another disruptive and unpredictable event will reverse the trend again.
Then there’s money. Mr. Trudeau’s victory in 2015 was largely due to young people. Those aged 18 to 35 were more likely to support him. But over the past two years, the curves have reversed. Young people are turning their backs on him. Most likely because they are the ones who are suffering the most from the rising cost of living and the housing crisis.
This is bad news for Mr. Trudeau and those looking for a miracle solution or a collective revelation in the face of the specter of a Pierre Poilievre victory. Time will not rewind, affordable housing will not spring up in a few months and the people struggling will not forget the colour of the government to which they attribute their difficulties.
In 2015, young people supported the Liberals more than other Canadians.
This is no surprise to the Liberals. Last fall, they hired a Toronto adman who specializes in targeting young people, Max Valiquette. But marketing alone won’t hypnotize them. The problem seems to be measured in hard dollars, according to a recent Abacus poll.2.
Here are the priority issues for 18-35 year olds, in order:
The environment and the climate crisis come in far behind, in seventh place among the choices proposed. Barely 19% of young respondents make it a priority. Immigration worries them more (27%). In particular because it has worsened the housing crisis, which already existed for other reasons.
But why are young people more worried about the rising cost of living than other Canadians? Because it hits them harder.
Here, by age group, is the percentage of respondents who had to postpone the following decisions due to lack of money:
A quarter of Canadians aged 35 and under have also postponed plans to have a child or enrol in higher education. Comparisons between age groups are obviously not relevant for these categories. But this rate is nevertheless distressing.
More than a third of young respondents also admitted to skipping a meal, reducing the quality of food or struggling to pay a bill on time. Again, this was the highest proportion of any age group.
To liberals who are already depressed by these findings, I suggest not reading what follows.
Overall, young people are not afraid of Pierre Poilievre. In 2015, 21% of 18-35 year-olds voted Conservative, and that support has remained relatively stable since then. By the winter of 2022, it was at 23%. Then, starting in December 2022, just after Poilievre was elected Conservative leader, support jumped to 35%.
Yet apartment and property prices had already started to climb by early 2022. At the very least, Mr. Poilievre hasn’t hurt his party, and he’s probably helped it.
Even worse for the Liberals, his image is slowly improving. After his leadership election in September 2022, respondents had a slightly negative impression of him (34% unfavourable opinions, compared to 29% favourable). The trend has since reversed. Since the beginning of winter, even if he is divisive, he has been a net winner (39% favourable opinions, 36% unfavourable).
This puts into perspective the Liberals’ desperate calls to reshuffle the government, fire advisers or change leaders. It might help, a little bit. But it won’t solve the fundamental problem of time and money.
1. See Canadians’ impression of Justin Trudeau
2. Abacus survey of 1,925 respondents. The margin of error would have been 2.2%, 19 times out of 20, if the sample had been probabilistic.
Check out the Abacus survey (in English)