“The shit, it always flies in a squadron”, said Jacques Chirac.
Indeed, misfortunes tend to come in cash of 12. The opposition has had a bitter reminder of this in the last few days.
The week had started very badly for the Caquista government. The hearings of the Coroner’s Office as well as the Québec Ombudsman’s report shed unflattering light on its management of the pandemic. Former Health Minister Danielle McCann and her senior officials reacted belatedly and confusedly. And even when the threat was finally taken seriously, the CHSLDs remained in their blind spot.
Easy to judge all this in the rearview mirror, retort the caquists. The fact remains that this does not justify their contradictory versions about the allegedly destroyed inspection reports or the instructions sent to the CISSS and CIUSSS.
This government is opposed to holding a commission of inquiry, but its shortcuts to the truth ironically demonstrate how this exercise could be useful.
In short, everything was going badly this week for the caquistes… until things started to go well again.
In as little time as it takes for François Legault to film himself with skates and a CH jersey, the tide has turned.
The economic update brought good news. The deficit has halved, thanks to unexpected economic growth and higher federal transfers – even though he advised against voting for the Liberals, Mr. Legault liked their unconditional check for the national child care program …
This leaves room for maneuver.
The question is no longer: where to cut? Now is the time: where to spend?
The Minister of Finance, Eric Girard, has targeted a few priorities.
Among them :
- The “scarcity” of labor (which he wants to reduce with scholarships and bonuses for certain trades where demand is great)
- Childcare services (improvement of the tax credit for parents who do not have access to a subsidized place)
- Purchasing power (benefit for people with lower than average income to reduce the shock of inflation)
The opposition cries out for electoralism.
In fact, the check will arrive in January, almost a year before the next election. It is not like the federal Liberals who sent money to seniors a few hundredths of a second before calling an election.
And even if it was electoralism, the Caquists will put up with criticism. There is worse than being criticized for making people happy.
The gap between the economic philosophies of the Caquists, the Liberals and the PQ is smaller than it appears. They more often respond to circumstances than to dogma.
In 2014, Mr. Legault also promised to return to a balanced budget. Philippe Couillard did it for him.
The Caquista government inherited healthy public finances. This allows him to rule comfortably in the center while looking good against his rivals.
Mr. Legault escapes the painful cuts that have made the provincial Liberals unpopular. And when you compare him to the federal Liberals, the CAQ leader seems responsible. Unlike Ottawa, Quebec has a target of zero deficit and debt reduction, and it is moving in the right direction.
The deficit is expected to be eliminated in 2027-2028. And if we did not contribute to the Generations Fund to finance the repayment of the debt, the budget would be balanced in two years.
Of course, all is not rosy. Expenditure growth will then be 3.5%. This is less than the rising costs of the health care system. The more time passes, the less money will be left for other departments.
Despite everything, it is too much to warn against austerity now, as Québec solidaire is doing.
This is understandable, however: the opposition wants to distinguish itself from the CAQ and the options are limited.
She can of course criticize the management of the CAQ to reduce the labor shortage, improve access to health care and increase academic success. Although, judging by the polls, voters don’t think they could do better.
The Liberals are looking for a more ideological divide. They are trying to redefine themselves as a more progressive and environmentalist party. This is understandable – caquistas are far from dark green. But in doing so, Dominique Anglade’s troops are getting closer, a little bit, to Québec solidaire. Their old activists might not identify with it.
In solidarity, it is the opposite. They begin a slight refocusing which may displease their base.
The caquists watch this spectacle, spreading out their full length in the center, popcorn in hand.
This explains at least in part the attention given to identity issues. Here the cleavage is obvious.
But again, nothing to displease the caquists. Secularism and language do not divide their electorate much. While the liberals and those in solidarity are making a big difference to rally sympathizers who do not always get along.
At the Liberal Congress this weekend, tensions are promising to be sharp between multiculturalists and moderate nationalists.
As for the Parti Québécois, it accuses Mr. Legault of embodying facade nationalism. But he failed to achieve independence and it is hard to imagine how he would wrest more power from Ottawa. Only the tongue remains. Even if the CAQ refuses to apply Bill 101 to CEGEPs, it is doing just enough to consolidate its support.
Here is a glimpse of the clouds flying above the heads of the Liberals, the PQ and the solidarity groups. They don’t let in much light.