Whatever the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) and the Bloc Québécois (BQ) may say, the alliance of Liberals and New Democrats is a masterstroke by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who has just regained full control of his legislative program and its political future.
The Liberal government has reached an agreement with the New Democratic Party (NDP) never seen in the 11 minority governments formed since 1945, according to the analysis of political science professor Jean-François Godbout. New Democrat Leader Jagmeet Singh has pledged support for the government’s next four budgets through 2025 in exchange for a dental plan for the less fortunate and universal pharmacare, which clashes head-on with the powers devolved to the provinces.
The Conservatives and the Bloc may be indignant at this strategic manoeuvre, but it is perfectly permitted in the Canadian parliamentary system. What is the difference ? With or without an alliance, the Liberals would have presented similar reforms. The New Democrats would have supported them after behind-the-scenes negotiations. The advantage for Justin Trudeau’s minority government is that it regains all the advantages of a majority. With the support of the NDP, he will be able to maintain control of parliamentary proceedings and avert the risks—real or imagined—of obstruction by other opposition parties.
The Liberals have repeatedly cited the Conservatives’ stonewalling to delay or jeopardize the legislative agenda. The torpedoing of Bill C-10 on broadcasting reform remains one of the most disappointing examples of stubborn Conservative blocking. The fact remains that the Trudeau government also bears some responsibility for the slow management of legislative priorities.
If voters are unhappy with this alliance, which they did not vote for, they will have to wait until 2025 to sanction the government. They will still have to remember the reasons for their anger more than three and a half years after the facts. The water will have flowed under the bridges. Prime Minister Trudeau will have had time to polish his political heritage without being encumbered by the instability of a minority governance and the pressure of the dolphins who covet his position within the party. He is the big winner of this alliance. He becomes once again master not only of his political program, but also of his destiny and of the possible conditions of his departure.
Otherwise, the alliance of the left only makes losers. The contenders for the Liberal leadership will have to bite the brakes. The NDP will later pay for this haggling by which it barters the future for the benefit of the present. In the eyes of voters, the gains and the progressive measures that will be passed by Parliament will be credited to the Liberals. The New Democrats will thus consolidate the return to the “pre-Layton” status of their existence. It is a left-wing consciousness that is content to influence the liberal program by band, without ambition or strategy to exercise power.
Times will be tough for the Conservatives and the Bloc, who will be caught screaming on the opposition benches with little hope of influence. The quality and depth of parliamentary debate will suffer, but no more, no less than is the case when the elected government is able to impose its views by the force of an absolute majority. What’s more, the Liberals will have time to take the measure of the next leader of the CCP. At the slightest sign of weakness, they will not hesitate to break the alliance with the NDP to call an election.
The progressive values that will be championed by the Liberals and New Democrats are not surprising or even outrageous to speak of. However, the power of two budgetary recklessness that the alliance risks creating remains a concern given the current economic uncertainty and recurring federal deficits. Who will care about budgetary realism within this spending alliance? And who will still care, outside of Quebec, about respecting the jurisdictions of the provinces?
During the creation of a Canadian network of daycare services, Ottawa agreed to pay compensation of six billion over five years to Quebec. A right to withdraw from future programs with compensation, modeled on this agreement, is more necessary than ever to preserve the autonomy of the provinces against the intrusive and centralizing reflexes of the orange-red alliance.