A market unfavorable to Canadians | The Press

(Philadelphia) Last winter, Jeff Gorton and Kent Hughes were the most popular sellers in the deal market.

Would you like a counter? An offensive quarterback? A defensive forward? A support player? The Canadian had all that in store. You just had to be prepared to pay full price – and even a little more.

This season ? Sales are more difficult. It’s been more than six months since the Canadiens traded a player from their regular roster. There’s a bit of bad luck in there. Nine club starters are injured. Difficult to exchange them. Leading clubs are also stuck under the salary cap.

But there is more.

The Habs are suffering the consequences of deflation. A correction in market prices, to the advantage of buying clubs.

The explanation is simple. Never in the history of the National Hockey League have we seen so many teams rebuilding at the same time. According to Action Network, 10% of NHL games are now considered “asymmetrical” (mismatched) by sports betting houses¹. This is five times more than before the pandemic! This disparity is particularly stark in the Western Conference, where six clubs have already been dropped from playoff contention. Plus the Canadian, in the East. Plus the Columbus Blue Jackets, who are struggling. Plus the Philadelphia Flyers, who are looking for each other. The cellar of the classification is full, do not add any more.

Result: there are too many sellers.

And what happens when the offer is too big? Think of a hot day. You buy lemons, squeeze them and sell your lemonade in front of the garage entrance. Initially you ask $3 for a drink. Business is good. Then a neighbor imitates you. Then another. And yet another. Soon, the sales are divided between nine neighbors. One of them cuts its price in half. What will you do ?

That’s why the Canadian ends up with a surplus of lemons. And no, comedians, this is not a metaphor for the quality of the players.

This dynamic obviously benefits buyers. Sharks asking too much for Timo Meier? Nevermind. We’ll go see the Canucks, for Brock Boeser. Or the Blues, for Ivan Barbashev. Or the Flyers, for James van Riemsdyk. Or the Canadian, for Josh Anderson. Or the Ducks, for Adam Henrique. Or the Blackhawks, for Patrick Kane, Max Domi, Sam Lafferty, Andreas Athanasiou, Jason Dickinson, lark.

The discounts are tempting.

Especially for attackers.

The Rangers got Vladimir Tarasenko against Samuel Blais, Hunter Skinner and picks. A boon. The Maple Leafs gave up four picks to acquire Ryan O’Reilly and Noel Acciari. But in this bouquet, no selection is likely to be among the first 25 in the repechage. After this rank, the chances of finding a regular contributor are only 30%².

Bo Horvat? Many of you think the Islanders paid too much for his services. Not me. Horvat has scored 35 goals this season. That’s more than Leon Draisaitl, Kirill Kaprizov, Alex Ovechkin and Auston Matthews. Besides, he’s only 27. In return, the Islanders traded first-round pick (protected) Anthony Beauvillier and prospect Aatu Räty, who is projected as a backup player.

These three recent transactions do nothing to help the Canadiens’ cause.

Yes, Canadian forwards produce more than O’Reilly and Acciari. Except that O’Reilly, despite a very bad season, remains one of the best centers in the NHL in faceoffs (55%). He also finished fourth last year for the Frank-Selke Trophy, given to the best defensive forward. Acciari? The algorithm of the Evolving Hockey site places it in the 89^e percentile for the quality of his defensive game.

The Canadian will probably trade one or two attackers in the next week. Expect a modest return, however.

For the defenders, it’s been dead calm for several weeks. Again, the offer is great. The risks of overbidding are therefore low. I would be surprised if clubs fight for the services of Joel Edmundson. First, he is often injured. Then, of all the NHL defensemen who played more than 500 minutes at even strength this season, he is the one with the worst goals-against average (4.35 for 60 minutes of play).

The Canadian has a good bank of young defenders. There is value there. Kent Hughes could tap into it to get reinforcements on offense. He did it last summer, by parting with Alexander Romanov to acquire Kirby Dach. Except that this type of transaction is concluded more often around the draft than at the deadline for transactions. Besides, I’m not convinced that the time for auditions is quite over. Romanov had played 137 games in Montreal. It was a good sample to get a head on his future. No young defender in the current edition has yet reached half that number.

The gardians ? Kent Hughes indicated earlier this winter that he would not trade Samuel Montembeault. Jake Allen (.894/5 goals saved) has a history of being a good second for a winning club. He could be a good insurance policy with an elite club. On the other hand, his new contract of 3.85 million for two seasons will come into effect next fall. It would be expensive to pay for a substitute. A think about it.

The Canadian will probably make some trades by next Friday. But you might as well warn yourself: if you expect a harvest as spectacular as last winter, you risk being disappointed.

¹ An asymmetrical game involves a team with odds of at least -300. That is, it has a 75% or greater chance of winning a game.