A liberal shipwreck on the horizon

(Ottawa) Can Justin Trudeau win the next federal election in 2025? The answer to this question is almost unanimous. That’s almost impossible, say polling experts and liberal strategists. Even current elected officials in the Trudeau government privately acknowledge that the slope to climb over the next 18 months has become very steep.

Without trumpeting it in front of the cameras, we expect the worst during the election scheduled for October 2025: a crushing defeat at the hands of the Conservative Party and the rise of Pierre Poilievre to the post of Prime Minister.

“Polls do not predict the future. I don’t have a crystal ball. But there is no recent precedent of a government as unpopular with all the indicators in red, as is currently the case, which succeeds in getting re-elected,” bluntly states Philippe J. Fournier, analysis expert. pollster and creator of the highly consulted political blogs 338Canada and Qc125.

There are many warning signs. Canadians are mostly dissatisfied with the Liberal government, believe that Canada is heading in the wrong direction and also believe that Pierre Poilievre (34%) would be a much better prime minister than Justin Trudeau (20%), according to the polling firm Nanos Research. “Normally, the outgoing Prime Minister enjoys an advantage in this regard of 5 to 7 points simply because he occupies the Prime Minister’s chair. But this is not the case at the moment,” underlines the president of this firm, Nik Nanos.

Worse still, 85% of Canadians say a change in government is necessary, even though 33% of those who hold this opinion argue that there is no adequate alternative option at the moment, according to the Abacus Data firm. The president of this firm, David Coletto, recalls that the thirst for change gives a good indication of future voting intentions.

On average, the Conservative Party obtains 42% of voting intentions in the country, compared to 25% for the Liberal Party, 19% for the New Democratic Party (NDP) and 5% for the Green Party, according to the 338Canada website. In Quebec, the Bloc Québécois comes first with 31%, while the Liberal Party collects 26%, but is heated by the Conservative Party, which collects 24%. The NDP must be satisfied with 13% in La Belle Province.

Such support, if it were to continue, would result on election day in a resounding victory for Pierre Poilievre’s troops.

“You have to be blind not to see that things are not going well at the moment for the Liberals. But is everything lost in advance? No, because an electoral campaign matters,” says Greg MacEachern, Liberal strategist in Ottawa for two decades, recalling the talents of the Liberal leader. “The dominant issues of today will not necessarily be the dominant issues of the next campaign. »

Despite the numerous unfavorable probes of the last 10 months, Justin Trudeau swears that he will lead his troops during the next campaign. He affirmed this with conviction during an interview granted to The Press last December^⁠1. He reaffirmed this without hesitation during an interview with the show Midday info from Radio-Canada in mid-March^⁠2.

“I couldn’t be the man I am and give up the fight at this time,” he told host Alec Castonguay, emphasizing that Canadians will have “such a fundamental choice to make on the kind of country we want” in the next election.

In the Liberal ranks, there is no doubt that Justin Trudeau will be at the helm of the party during the next battle. “Yes, I am convinced that he will be the leader in the next election,” says a Liberal MP from Ontario, who requested anonymity in order to express himself more freely. “But the numbers are not good. There are only 12 months left to reverse the trend. It will be quite a challenge. »

Despite the difficult context, there is no well-organized movement within the Liberal Party to force the leader’s departure. Under cover of anonymity, a handful of Liberal MPs from Ontario called for a change of direction last September, before the resumption of parliamentary work, to avoid the electoral disaster that is looming on the horizon. But since they revealed their daily moods Toronto Starthey were most discreet.

“He’s the one who will decide. He said it quite clearly and quite openly. There is a great level of loyalty towards him and that is to his credit,” says a Liberal MP from Quebec, who also requested anonymity in order to be able to express himself freely.

1. Read the article “Interview at The Press – Justin Trudeau intends to remain in charge”

2. Listen to the interview given by Justin Trudeau to the show Midday info from ICI Première