a historic score for the National Rally and its allies, who obtained 33.2% of the votes in the 1st round, according to our Ipsos-Talan estimate

Two years after its historic breakthrough, the National Rally (RN) takes the lead in the first round of the legislative electionsSunday June 30. With the candidates from the Republicans who followed Eric Ciotti, the RN bloc and its allies collects 33.2% of the votes cast, according to an Ipsos-Talan estimate for France Télévisions, Radio France, France 24, RFI and LCP. This is a little less than the last estimates before the 1st round, which credited them with 36% of the votes. But eIn two years, Marine Le Pen’s party has won nearly 15 points compared to the first round of the 2022 legislative elections, when he received 18.68% of the votes.

After its record score in the European elections (31.37%) on June 9, the triggering event for the dissolution of the National Assembly, the RN therefore continues its electoral progress and finds itself in a position to win an absolute majority at the Palais-Bourbon in the outcome of the second round, Sunday July 7. “VSThere are several dozen elected in the first round. I think that all this is an element of great hope for millions of French people.”exclaimed Marine Le Pen. At least 37 RN deputies were elected in the first round, according to an AFP count.

The RN ahead, as expected, the New Popular Front (28.1%), while Together for the Republic, the alliance led by Emmanuel Macron’s party (21%), is placed in third position. Two years after having been elected 89 deputies in 36 departments, The RN is on the verge of breaking this record and strengthening its territorial roots.

If the trend is confirmed after the second round, the RN could obtain 230 to 280 deputy seats, according to an Ipsos-Talan projection to be taken with caution, and thus become, for the first time in its history, the most important political group in the hemicycle. But Marine Le Pen’s objective is to cross, with the support of Eric Ciotti’s troops, the threshold of 289 seats in the National Assembly. If the RN does not have this absolute majority, the president of the party, Jordan Bardella, warned that he would refuse to be appointed to Matignon.

If Jordan Bardella is not a candidate, Marine Le Pen was, in the 11th constituency of Pas-de-Calais, where she has been elected since 2017. The three-time presidential candidate won by a large margin, with more than 58% of the votes, compared to nearly 26% for the candidate of the New Popular Front-PS, Samira Laal.The French have, without ambiguity, demonstrated their desire to turn the page after seven years of contemptuous and corrosive power.she said, welcoming a “a mark of trust that honors and obliges us”.

“PHowever, nothing is won, the second round is decisive. Pto give Jordan Bardella an absolute majority in the National Assembly” and that he “be appointed Prime Minister by Emmanuel Macron in eight days, I invite you to renew your vote”continued Marine Le Pen. “Otherwise, I call on you to join the coalition of freedom, security and unity on Sunday.”she concluded.

“Today, the French lived up to their responsibilities, they did honor to our democracy” And “rendered a final verdict”declared Jordan Bardella for his part. “LThe vote they will cast next Sunday is one of the most decisive in the entire history of the Fifth Republic.”continued the leader of the RN, estimating that The presidential camp is no longer able to win” and “The high score of the extreme left raises major concerns”.

As for other RN executives, Sebastien Chenuformer vice-president of the Assembly, retains the 19th constituency of the North, with 58.35% of the votes, and the outgoing deputy Jean-Philippe Tanguy qualifies for the second round (49.62%) in the 4th constituency of the Somme, far ahead of the Ensemble candidate, Anthony Gest (18.47%). Parachuted into the 4th constituency of SartheMarine Le Pen’s sister, Marie-Caroline Le Penmanages to qualify for the second round (39.26%) in a triangular against the candidate of the New Popular Front, Elise Leboucher (25.94%) and the candidate of the majority, Sylvie Casenave-Péré (25.88 %).

In the 2nd constituency of Lot-et-Garonne, the former RN vice-president of the National Assembly Helen Laporte qualifies for the second round (49.31%) and will face in a triangular the NFP (Christophe Courregelongue, 26.89%) and Ensemble (Jean-Marie-Lenzi, 21.99%). The former vice-president of the party, Edwige Diaz, was elected in the first round in the 11th constituency of Gironde, with 53.33%. RN spokespersons Laurent Jacobelli And Thomas Ménage come out on top. The first, in the 8th constituency of Moselle (46.36%), will face the NFP candidate Céline Léger (28.98%) in the second round. The second, in the 4th constituency of Loiret (49.65%), is also far ahead of the candidate of the left union, Bruno Nottin (21.14%).

Eric Ciotti, contested president of the Republicans (LR), had nominated 62 candidates under the “Rally of Rights” label, after having forged an alliance with the RN, denounced by all the other LR executives. Coming in first in a triangular in the 1st constituency of the Alpes-Maritimes (41.04%), iL called on right-wing voters to reject the “terrifying danger from the far left” in the second round, considering that “victory [était] in view to bring Jordan Bardella to Matignon”. “I call on all Republicans to follow the path of unity that I have opened. The Republicans cannot abstain in this second round. The Republicans must participate in the victory of the entire right”added Eric Ciotti.

Christelle d’Intorni, the only outgoing LR MP to have followed Eric Ciotti, won hands down in the 1st round in the 5th constituency of the Alpes-Maritimes, with 50.35% of the votes. Guilhem Carayon, boss of young LR candidates under the Rally of Rights banner, comes at the head of a triangular in the 3rd constituency of Tarn, with 43.51% of the votes. In the 9th constituency of Hérault, Charles-Henri Alloncleformer president of the Youth with Sarkozy and now RN-LR is in first position in a three-way race (36.43%). In Tarn-et-Garonne, the mayor of Montauban, Brigitte Barègesahead of the outgoing PS deputy Valérie Rabault with 43.93% of the votes, against 36.81% for her rival, Valérie Rabault (NFP). The number two of the LR federation, Matthew Bloch, one of the rare local officials to have followed Éric Ciotti, came at the head of a triangular in the third constituency of Doubs, with 44.35% of the votes.

With these sharp candidates,The RN thus hopes to swell its ranks in the Assembly if these far-right Union deputies win the second round.


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