Two years after the start of the open war launched by Russia on February 24, 2022 against Ukraine, it appears that the transformation of the international system is complete. The structure that emerged after the end of the Cold War (1989-1990) in place of the unipolar international system, which we call cooperative multipolarity, came to an end with the war in Ukraine.
In a speech delivered to the German Parliament (Bundestag) three days after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Chancellor Olaf Scholz described this change of era as a historic turning point (Zeitenwende).
The period of cooperative multipolarity lasted around thirty years. It began after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact in 1991. It came to an end with the start of the conflict in Ukraine, the most disastrous war in Europe since the Second World War. Note that the wars in former Yugoslavia (1991-2000), the loss of life of which is estimated at 150,000, did not fundamentally change relations between States in Europe, including relations between the West and Russia. . The states that emerged from these conflicts were outside Russia’s direct sphere of influence and did not alter the existing European geopolitical balance.
Cooperative multipolarity went hand in hand with the appearance of peace dividends. Instead of maintaining high military spending, as was the case during the Cold War, the states of the Euro-Atlantic community could redirect them towards the civilian economy and thus improve the general standard of living of the population.
For the states of Central and Eastern Europe, the period following the Cold War was characterized by economic prosperity which included their integration into the European Union. This era also brought prosperity to Russia, especially after the year 2000. It allowed the revival of economic growth, which had been at half mast since the perestroika period (1986-1991). Russia’s post-Soviet modernity was based on extensive economic cooperation with European Union member states, which purchased considerable quantities of Russian gas and oil. This trade passed through the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines.
A divided international community
The war in Ukraine has virtually ended cooperation between Russia and the Euro-Atlantic community. After February 24, 2022, the European Union imposed 13 packages of economic sanctions against Russia. The United States, Great Britain, Canada and Japan did the same.
Relations return to the same conflictuality that existed in the bipolar international system in place between 1947 and 1990, commonly called the Cold War. This system divided Europe into East and West. Two military alliances — NATO, created in 1949, in the west; the Warsaw Pact, created by the Soviet Union in 1955, in the east — guaranteed cold peace and the territorial integrity of states on both sides.
NATO’s political-military strategy was based on two pillars: the containment of Warsaw Pact troops or, if deterrence failed, their refoulement from the territory of the Alliance member states, in accordance with Article 5 of the Treaty. founder of NATO. This defense structure is coming back in force after the Russian aggression against Ukraine. In 2023, NATO also accepted two new members: Finland and Sweden.
As a result, the peace dividends of the previous era are disappearing. Members of NATO and the European Union are financing the war in Ukraine and, at the same time, increasing their military spending. By 2024, 18 of NATO’s 31 members will have annual military spending equivalent to 2% of their gross domestic product. For years, this threshold desired by the United States had been ignored, especially by states like France and Germany, the backbone of NATO in Europe. NATO member states preferred to invest money from the military budget in the needs of civil society, thinking that peace in Europe was achieved in the long term.
The war in Ukraine has divided the international community, as demonstrated by the vote in the UN General Assembly following the invasion of Ukraine. Although 141 states condemned Russian aggression, 7 were against it and 32 abstained. Russia’s allies have mobilized not only to defend Russian interests, but also to transform the existing international order, dominated, in their view, by the collective West.
A new order to imagine
The alliance of totalitarian and authoritarian states — among which the most influential are China, Russia, Iran and North Korea — perceives itself as the true representative of the South. It seeks to impose an authoritarian world order based on force (hard power). The desire to create an authoritarian world order, falsely called “multipolar” by these States, means nothing other than transposing their repressive internal order onto the international level. It is an order based on the law of the strongest, in open conflict with the collective North, which defends an order based on the rules of international law integrated into the UN Charter.
These states also claim to be the true defenders of the economic interests of the Global South. International organizations such as BRICS+ (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and five other states), the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the G77 + China (representing 134 states) have thus become the spearheads of the transformation of the existing world order.
However, the task promises to be difficult for China and Russia, given that most states belonging to the Global South prefer multi-alignment according to their national interests to automatic alignment with the policies of international organizations dominated by these two giants. . During the Cold War, these states often avoided explicitly aligning themselves with the Soviet Union or the United States.
Revanchists, Russia and China are working to create an international order of which the great powers would be the sole arbiters, an order which would leave them free to act as they wish within their sphere of influence while respecting the primacy of other powers in their inner courts and maintaining a balance between them.
This conception of international relations resembles the conduct of the great European powers following the First World War and the signing of the Treaty of Versailles (1919), which established a new international order in Europe. This order was short-lived: in 1939, the Second World War broke out…