On Monday, Justin Trudeau will travel to Bali, Indonesia, to meet with his G20 counterparts. He will attend a particularly tense summit this year, given that the war in Ukraine shows no signs of de-escalating and that China is increasingly hostile towards the countries of the North.
“The G20 represents one of the best annual opportunities for the leaders present to make meaningful resolutions for the coming year,” said Greg Robinson, professor in the Department of History at UQAM and researcher at the Raoul Chair. – Dandurand. It is therefore 19 countries with developed or emerging economies, in addition to the European Union, which will take part. The G20 Speakers’ Summit will take place on Tuesday and Wednesday.
For Justin Trudeau, these next few days in Bali will be an opportunity to urge his counterparts to isolate Russia in the context of the war in Ukraine, as well as to strengthen its links – economic and diplomatic – with the democratic countries in the process of development, for alleviate the more difficult relations between Canada and China.
Let us recall that last October, during a conference in Washington, Chrystia Freeland, Deputy Prime Minister of Canada, had proposed to the democracies of the world to “chart together” a “new economic path” in order to isolate China, between others because of his human rights abuses.
Mélanie Joly, Canadian Minister of Foreign Affairs, and Justin Trudeau subsequently reiterated their wish to continue to maintain economic relations with China, while condemning it in terms of human rights.
Passing through Cambodia at the end of the week to announce increased economic collaboration with the countries of Southeast Asia, Mr. Trudeau notably promised that he would challenge China on its treatment of the Uighur minority, during the G20.
“That’s how we’re going to maintain Canada’s position as a true world player. That’s why we’re here today, why we’re going to be at the G20 in Indonesia tomorrow, and why we’re going to attend the APEC summit [Coopération économique pour l’Asie-Pacifique] in Thailand,” he said at a press conference on Sunday.
The war in Ukraine in the foreground
Perhaps the most contentious item on the agenda of the G20 leaders remains the war in Ukraine, especially since the United States and China are adopting different postures on this front. “Strengthened by the Democrats’ victory in the Senate, Joe Biden will be better able to encourage Europeans to stand up to Russia and support Ukraine,” said Mr. Robinson.
Chinese power will, however, also be “strengthened”, explains the professor, given that Chinese President Xi Jinping has just confirmed his third term as head of the country. China, an ally of Russia, remains much more discreet, even embarrassed, about the war in Ukraine, he says.
Mr. Robinson therefore believes that the G20 represents an important opportunity for Joe Biden to consolidate support for Ukraine, especially since support from the United States itself remains weakened by uncertain results for Congress. American in the midterm elections. “If the Republicans take the House of Representatives, there will be more pressure, within the country, against financing the war,” he said.
Vladimir Putin will certainly be the “elephant in the room” during the G20 leaders’ meetings. Absent, he will be replaced by his Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergei Lavrov. According to Mr. Robinson, the G20 countries, especially the Europeans, will redouble their efforts at the summit to repair the damage caused by the war, which Mr. Putin began more than eight months ago.
“Europe is still in the shadow of this war,” says Mr. Robinson. At first we wanted to oppose the invasion, now we will be wondering how to maintain essential infrastructure, how to save the economy, how much aid to send to Ukraine and possibly how to start talks to the peace. Even countries with right-wing governments, like Italy, now support Ukraine. »
Standoffs with China
While many still fear a Chinese invasion in Taiwan, several democratic countries — including Canada — are encountering impasses in their demands to Xi Jinping. Mr. Biden said, among other things, that he would urge the Chinese president to control North Korea, which has repeatedly brandished the nuclear threat in recent months. The two men will meet for the first time in person as heads of state on Monday.
“China has no interest in intervening in North Korea and responding to Joe Biden’s demands on this point, Mr. Robinson nevertheless qualifies. If ever a conflict between the United States and North Korea breaks out, it would cause a huge crisis for China. »
According to the professor, the G20 will also be discussing the tariffs imposed by the United States on China during Donald Trump’s mandate: “Biden wanted to keep the tariffs for the moment, but they could serve as currency exchange at any given time. »
“We are playing a difficult game with China, Canada included […], adds Mr. Robinson. China could be more and more aggressive, it remains to be seen. For example, when Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, China retaliated with military threats. »
Thus, although the climate is likely to be tense as of Monday, at the G20, the urgency of international collaboration on war, the economy, and the climate seems more clear than ever.