a Frenchman arrested for “espionage” while the president prepares his 5th re-election in February

The ambassador of Azerbaijan confirmed on Tuesday January 9 the detention of a Frenchman, accused of espionage, provoking the anger of Paris. Relations between the two countries have been poor since France’s support for Armenia, which fears its continued invasion.

This news will not help relations between Paris and Baku. A Frenchman accused of espionage was arrested on December 4, 2023. The news was confirmed by the ambassador of Azerbaijan on Tuesday January 9, 2024 in the morning, specifying that justice had decided to keep this French national in detention for a period of 4 months. But Paris judges this arrest “arbitrary” and demands his release “without delay”.

Everything is still very unclear about the facts with which Martin Ryan is accused, “suspected of having committed acts of espionage”, according to the ambassador who does not give further details. The father of this French expatriate claims that his son “would be treated well, that he would get along well with his lawyer”. This is what emerges from the four telephone conversations of two minutes maximum, which Martin Ryan was able to have with his family.

“Used as a pawn” amid tensions

This arrest comes in a climate of strong diplomatic tensions between France and Azerbaijan. In one of the conversations he had with those close to him, Martin Ryan believes he was “used as a pawn”. It is a direct allusion, according to his father, to the expulsion at the end of December of two French diplomats by the Azerbaijani authorities, two civil servants who are accused of “activities incompatible with their status”. The next day, as a matter of reciprocity, Paris in turn decided to send two diplomats back to Baku. This is what relations between the two countries look like.

Moreover, Ilham Aliev, the Azerbaijani president, makes no secret of it; he clearly has a lot to criticize the French government for: “France is playing a very destructive role in the South Caucasus. In reality, Armenia has become the puppet of the French government today, and that could be a real threat to regional stability.” This declaration at the beginning of December by Ilham Aliev proves that the Azerbaijani president has clearly still not digested France’s support for Armenia, during Baku’s lightning offensive on Nagorno Karabakh, on September 19, 2023.

Capitalize on its military success in Nagorno-Karabakh

The offensive, which was successful, now ensures the support of 75% of the population in Azerbaijan. A trend which perhaps explains Aliyev’s pugnacious speech and the arrests of recent weeks. The Azeri nationalist leader wants to capitalize on his military and popular success in the fall. He also signed a decree at the beginning of December to anticipate the next presidential election. Initially scheduled for 2025, it will finally take place on February 7, 2024. Ilham Aliev is therefore actively preparing the ground. It clearly identifies the enemy outside the borders and cleans up within. This is evidenced by the wave of arrests and searches carried out at the homes of his opponents.

The opposition will not present a candidate on February 7, 2024. Ilham Aliev is therefore almost guaranteed to obtain a 5th term as president, probably with the same scores as in previous votes, 77% in 2003, 88% in 2008, 85 % in 2013 and 86% in 2018.