A few months before the European elections, what changes does the victory in the Dutch legislative elections for Geert Wilders’ far-right party change?

The Netherlands is one of the founding countries of the European Union. However, Geert Wilders’ surprise victory in November leaves uncertainty over a common future. Because his party, the PVV, quite simply advocates Nexit.

In fact, we don’t really know what to expect because there are a lot of unknowns in the equation. Indeed, if we stick to the strict program of the Freedom Party (the PVV), the party of Geert Wilders, there should be, in the Netherlands, a referendum on Nexit, that is- i.e. leaving the European Union. Except that this seems improbable because Geert Wilders will not and cannot govern alone. Certainly he won, but his party only has 37 deputies out of 150. In the Netherlands, we vote by full proportional representation and the far-right leader must therefore succeed in building a government coalition around him.

Three parties came to join him at the negotiating table: first the Citizen Peasant Movement (BBB), then the New Social Contract party, a newcomer to the center-right, and finally the VVD, the liberal party of Mark Rutte, Prime Minister. outgoing minister but still in place pending the formation of a new government. If he wants to lead the government, Geert Wilders will have to make concessions, as Thaïjs Bermon, former Dutch socialist MEP, reminds us.

“Everything will depend on his willingness to put his most radical ideas ‘in the fridge,’ as he says.”

Thaïjs Bermon, former Dutch socialist MEP

at franceinfo

“In the fridge therefore, the ban on Islam, the Koran, the idea of ​​completely stopping immigration and the acceptance of asylum seekers in the Netherlands, of leaving the European Union”lists the socialist.

In short, a new government in the Netherlands is probably not going to happen right away. In 2021, it took 281 days to create a coalition around Marc Rutte. This is the record length until now when the substantive disagreements were much less important between the parties. There is therefore a significant possibility that there will be no Dutch government before the European elections in June.

These European elections in the Netherlands are coming with a lot of questions. We do not know what themes they will focus on and we also do not know to what extent they will interest Dutch voters. What is certain, in any case, is that as in many countries, including France, the issue will revolve around the fed up of traditional parties and the rise of Eurosceptics.

An announced frugality

On the other hand, we can try to outline the attitude that a Wilders government could have in European discussions, with the Netherlands, which from being frugal could become super-frugal, fears Thaïjs Bermon in particular. “The Netherlands will return to a position of extreme reluctance to spend more than is strictly necessary to remain in the European Union. It does not want to support Ukraine, it opposes all climate policies and therefore the countries -Bas will behave like a country which slows down a credible policy in this regard. This is a great risk for the cohesion of the European Union”, observes the former MEP.

On the Ukrainian question, however, Geert Wilders will undoubtedly have to let go. The Dutch Parliament recently confirmed its willingness to help Ukraine, just before Christmas. Potential allies of Geert Wilders have spoken out in favor of aid to kyiv. So, if a coalition welcoming these same parties were to succeed in forming a government around the far-right party, it is difficult to see the Netherlands vetoing European aid to kyiv.