The autumn that is coming to an end is one that François Legault will certainly wish to quickly forget. The Prime Minister of Quebec shatters new records in the polls… now champion of the drop in popularity. A spectacular decline which, moreover, he can mainly blame only himself and his team.
The disenchantment of Quebecers with the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) and its leader was confirmed in the Léger survey published this week, which once again placed them in second place. The CAQ has lost no less than 16 points since its electoral victory last year (41% of votes, evaporated to 25% support today). Worse, the dissatisfaction rate with his government reached 63% (10 points more than just two months ago).
There was a time, not so long ago, when Mr. Legault was the envy of all his counterparts in Canada by enjoying stratospheric approval rates (77% at the start of the pandemic, and even a very enviable 57% last December) . Here too, the fall is steep. The Quebec Prime Minister now comes last, garnering only an approval rate of 31%.
In all provinces, except the Prairies, leaders are paying the price for this increase in the cost of living that has become unmanageable for citizens. However, the Caquists would be wrong to attribute all their misfortunes to this gloomy situation. There is also the lack of direction of their government and its rash decisions for which it is no longer forgiven.
Mr. Legault’s authenticity and the admission of his errors, in an unprecedented pandemic crisis, had succeeded. But with a supermajority and free rein, the health crisis having calmed, his government seems not to have learned to govern again. Or, rather, not having agreed to do so while running the risk of displeasing.
To explain this disaffection among Quebecers, first expressed during the Jean-Talon by-election, François Legault only retains some of the criticisms identified by Léger. The salary increase for MPs (for 37% of respondents), the subsidy for the arrival of the Los Angeles Kings (28%) and repeated changes of idea, as in the case of the third link between Quebec and Lévis (19 %). By striving to try to seduce everyone, Mr. Legault ultimately displeased everyone in turn. And it created the impression of too frequent improvisation.
However, the main source of discontent, which Mr. Legault prefers not to mention out loud, is eminently more complicated to correct and make people forget: that his government has failed to improve the health and education systems, deplore 44% of respondents.
The wait in the emergency room, which was to be reduced to 90 minutes before consulting a caregiver, is still around five hours on average. The deaths of two people at Anna-Laberge hospital are a tragic reminder of this. The CAQ promised, in 2018, a family doctor for everyone; 600,000 Quebecers were still orphans last March. Childcare waiting lists were also to be “considerably” reduced; 37,000 children are looking for a place immediately. Public schools are dilapidated. The use of private health care, due to lack of access to specialized care, no longer even raises eyebrows.
The desperate erosion of our public services, although exacerbated by two years of pandemic, is today mobilizing union members all the more in their negotiations with the State, as well as the population. This solidarity, on both sides, proved to be more sustained than the CAQ seemed to anticipate. Its room for maneuver was weakened.
The government is banking on the effects of its major structuring reforms in health and education to improve its balance sheet between now and the next election, scheduled in three years. The strong resistance put up by unions and their professionals could, however, undermine their implementation and, ultimately, the achievement of these long-awaited results.
The rise of the Parti Québécois, at the top of national voting intentions for the first time since 2014, is not accompanied by a new independence momentum. Quite the contrary. Quebecers who would be content to remain within Canada by signing the 1982 Constitution (47%) are more numerous than those who would like to make Quebec a country (34%). For the moment, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon above all embodies the CAQ’s protest vehicle.
The Quebec electorate rarely neglects a duty of loyalty. The orange wave of the federal New Democratic Party swept through Quebec as quickly as its surf followed.
If he wants to prolong his own blue wave, François Legault would do well to abandon cookie-cutter or downright absurd decisions, such as the exclusion of a committee on the gender identity of LGBTQ communities, which are the first concerned. The Prime Minister allowed himself to dream on Friday that 2024 would be better than 2023. It’s up to him.