Two nationalists and a “Colombian Trump”. On the eve of the second round of presidential elections in Colombia on Sunday, the accession to power of the left, for the first time in the country’s history, with the candidacy of Gustavo Petro, remains uncertain since the surprise arrival in the equation ofoutsider Rodolfo Hernandez. The septuagenarian, often compared to the American populist, eclipsed the traditional right in the first round of last May, taking second place.
Difficult, therefore, to predict the outcome of the election. A recent survey by the firm Invamer, released last week, crystallized a neck and neck by crediting Mr. Hernández, 77, with 48.2% of the voting intentions, against 47.2% for the youngest politician , Mr. Petro, 62, ex-mayor of Bogotá and ex-member of the M-19 guerrillas. The difference is in the margin of error.
Arriving at the top of the first round, this left-wing candidate hoped to bring the country into a new era by dislodging, on June 19, the right of the outgoing president, Iván Duque, represented in these elections by the center candidate right, Federico Gutiérrez. The latter was humiliated by a third place, thus confirming the collapse of Uribismo, the hegemonic neoliberal narrative in Colombia launched by Álvaro Uribe at the beginning of the century.
“The presence of Hernández in the second round is very bad news for Gustavo Petro, who was counting on the unpopularity of the outgoing government and the coalition that supported him to win the ballot”, summarizes in an interview with the To have to political scientist Yann Basset, director of the DEMOS-UR Democracy Study Group at the Universidad del Rosario, in Bogotá. Facing another anti-system and nationalist candidate, just like him, now makes the task more difficult, at the same time placing Colombian voters in front of a serious dilemma and Colombia in front of a decisive moment in its history.
“It is highly probable that the next president of Colombia will be Rodolfo Hernández”, drops Juan Gabriel Gómez Albarello, a specialist in Colombian politics at the Universidad Nacional de Colombia, who portrays this candidate from the margins as a skilled politician who has fueled an unexpected ascent by wrapping itself in the virtues of the fight against corruption, endemic in Colombia, and by stoking the feeling of loss of confidence in the institutions, a feeling increasingly expressed by Colombians after more than two years of pandemic.
Paradoxically, the man is himself targeted by the justice of his country for an irregular contract signed during his term as mayor of the big city of Bucaramanga, between 2016-2019.
“Like populist candidates in other countries, Rodolfo Hernández grew rapidly with an anti-establishment agenda that appealed to many voters in the midst of a deep economic and social crisis,” summarizes political scientist Laura García Montoya, attached to the University of Rosario. His rhetoric centers on corrupt political elites who have been unable to effect the necessary changes. And the recipe seems to have worked, as in 2016 for Donald Trump in the United States.
“The similarities are undeniable, adds from the Colombian capital Luke Melchiorre, professor of political science at the Universidad de los Andes. Like the American populist, Rodolfo Hernández is a wealthy businessman who made his fortune in real estate development. Moreover, he is also an atypical, middle-aged politician who has successfully used social media to establish a direct and powerful connection with a growing group of followers. »
Nicknamed “the engineer”, he has indeed invested the social network TikTok with simple and repetitive messages: “do not steal, do not lie, do not betray”. After the first-round results were announced, he shunned the mainstream media for his second-place speech, preferring to address his followers from his kitchen on Facebook.
This direct and unvarnished communication brought the politician, wealthy and linked to the political and economic world of the country, closer to an electoral base victim of growing social inequalities in Colombia, certainly, but attracted, despite these contradictions, by his image as a man strong.
A straight talk
“Rodolfo is unfiltered. One of the strengths of his strategy is to show himself as he is […], with the blunders he sometimes makes because of his outspokenness, but also his freedom to say things, ”explains Angel Becassino, his main campaign adviser, quoted by Agence France-Presse. Even if this sometimes testifies to sincere vulgarity and suggests an authoritarian presidency that could quickly come into contradiction with the principles of the rule of law.
In the campaign, Rodolfo Hernández promised to provoke a ” stage of conmocion interior (a state of internal shock) to ruthlessly address the causes of endemic corruption within Colombia’s political institutions, suspending some laws and seeking to impose others without congressional approval. He threatened in advance the members of the legislative power who would not support his plans.
He illustrated himself in viral videos praising Adolf Hitler – he later apologized – or even by hitting a city councilor who had accused him of being corrupt.
“In a recording released to the public, he is also heard telling a collaborator that he is wiping his ass with the law after she refused to do what he asked because she considered it illegal. adds Juan Gabriel Gómez Albarello.
“Before his victory in the first round, the voters did not know him very well, sums up Colombian political strategist Sergio Guzmán, director and co-founder of Colombia Risk Analysis, on the other end of the line, but he managed to climb by winning. as the only candidate in the race capable of blocking the left. A propelling force that the populist’s foul language, or his sometimes embarrassing simplism in the face of complex issues, has hiccupped since his surprise victory, he adds, but probably not enough to offer a breach to the left in the June 19 is approaching.
“Colombia is a very conservative society and many fear what a leftist government could bring about as changes,” explains Victor Uribe-Uran, professor of history and specialist in Colombia at Florida International University, joined in the United States. The vote for Hernández is above all a vote against Petro, but also against Gutiérrez, deemed incapable by the electorate of beating the left-wing candidate in a second round. »
Opposites, but not distant
In the circumstances, “Gustavo Petro seeks to present himself, in the second part of his campaign, as the most coherent, the most pluralistic and above all the best prepared candidate to gain power, underlining the too great uncertainties surrounding the ideological perspective of Hernández, a very big risk for the voters and for the country, for the left”, analyzes Luke Melchiorre.
Since the start of this presidential election, polls have shown that a large proportion of Colombians who go to the polls are demanding change. A thirst now placed before a difficult choice, and especially before two opposing candidates without being so far apart, warns Juan Gabriel Gómez Albarello. “Today all the attention seems to be on Hernández’s excesses, but careful observers note that Petro also has significant despotic potential. He and his entourage express a very strong sectarian discourse, he adds. They are the tropical embodiment of Robespierre and Saint-Just, believing themselves to be very virtuous, but with a fairly lax sense of obedience to law and a respect for the separation of powers almost non-existent. »
Petro once mentioned that his bedside books when he was young were Don Quixotewhich the present has turned into a sort of metaphor for Trumpism, and The social contract of Rousseau, philosopher of the political and social totality.
He adds: “As Chávez did in Venezuela and Orbán in Hungary, as Trump tried to do in the United States, Petro and the petristas [nom donné à ses partisans] will no doubt try to coerce or manipulate the judiciary so that it does not put obstacles in their way. And that is not very reassuring because, whoever wins on Sunday evening, Colombia will inevitably have very difficult years ahead of them. »