Canadians will feel the “domino effect” of the increasingly likely Russian invasion of Ukraine, even in their wallets, which has all the appearance of the start of open war, according to several experts.
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“It’s a very bleak picture that is emerging,” admits Roger McKnight, oil price specialist at En-Pro International, an energy solutions consulting firm.
Gasoline prices will climb 2¢ tomorrow and reach record highs this spring and early summer, McKnight predicts.
This increase will then affect the entire economy and aggravate the inflation that is already rampant. So the impact will be felt as far away as the grocery store, says McKnight.
To this could be added an increase in the price of agricultural products, Russia being a major exporter of wheat, adds Justin Massie, professor of political science at the University of Quebec in Montreal.
“We are really on the threshold of a major war,” worries Dominique Arel, professor at the University of Ottawa and holder of the Chair in Ukrainian Studies.
However, the scenario of Canadian soldiers sent to Ukraine to fight Russian troops is almost unlikely, agree to say the political experts interviewed.
“Throw the system down”
But we will not be spared the instability that a new war in Europe can create, even if the impact on the daily lives of Quebecers proves to be indirect, explain the experts.
What Vladimir Putin did by announcing his intention to invade the pro-Russian regions of Ukraine, “is like throwing the system down”, sums up Mr. Arel.
One of the basic principles of the world order is the inviolability of borders, experts point out.
During his televised appearance on Monday, the Russian president said he recognized the independence of “the Donetsk People’s Republic […] and Lugansk”, while cultivating ambiguity on the exact limits of the regions subject to its threats.
“It’s a bit like rebel groups controlling Trois-Rivières and Sherbrooke and claiming all of Quebec,” image Maria Popova, professor of political science at McGill University.
Some experts therefore fear that the worst scenario will become reality: that of an armed conflict not only in eastern Ukraine, but throughout Ukraine, with clashes even in Kiev, the capital.
A cold war
Although he considers it unlikely that the conflict will spill over from Ukraine’s borders, Justin Massie sees it as the start of a kind of cold war, with two blocs competing more aggressively than before, which may be reflected in Canadian defense spending, he says.
“There has been a clear deterioration in international relations in recent years,” which increases the possibility of conflicts around the world, notes Frédéric Mérand, professor at the University of Montreal and researcher at the Center for Studies and international research.
In this context, the typically Canadian approach, which is rather gentle and based on cooperation between other countries, becomes somewhat “obsolete”.
It is therefore increasingly difficult to imagine all the major powers sitting at the same table to discuss the environment and find global solutions to major global problems, he analyzes.