Climatic disruptions marked the summer in Quebec, but the fall promises to be rather dry, with temperatures slightly below seasonal norms. In the Maritimes, storms should be monitored while in the West, the lack of precipitation could cause forest fires to last.
After a season marked by forest fires, floods, tornado warnings and late heatwaves, weather forecasts are favorable for an autumn without major upheavals, at least for Quebec and Ontario.
According to Météomédia forecasts, temperatures in the coming weeks will be close to normal, or slightly below in these two provinces.
A taste of winter
Fresh air bursts from October could leave the impression of an early winter.
“We’re going to have a rather mild, rather pleasant month of September, but mid-season, somewhere in October, we should have some significant bursts of fresh air which should last several weeks and which will make us feel as if we were in winter”, but “we expect the pendulum to swing back in November and early December with temperatures above normal”, explained André Monette, head of the meteorology department at Météomédia.
A dry autumn
Precipitation and the number of storms are expected to be below normal and Quebec and Ontario will experience a rather dry fall, according to Météomédia.
“We are forecasting a precipitation deficit for regions further north, but precipitation closer to normal for the St. Lawrence Valley, and probably fewer fall storms, but when there are some, they could be stronger. »
Big storms like the one that caused strong winds on Halloween last year in some areas could occur due to “large systems that could have significant repercussions,” according to the meteorologist.
“We are forecasting a lot of mildness in the west of the country and in the southern United States, which could lead to a big contrast in temperature between the cold in Hudson Bay and the heat in the southern United States. The greater this contrast, the more severe the storms can be,” explained André Monette.
Météomédia has not yet commented on the winter season, but “the start of winter should be mild”, underlined the meteorologist.
A hurricane season to watch in the Maritimes
The Maritimes should experience closer to normal temperatures in the fall, while the warmth of the Atlantic Ocean favors mild weather for Nova Scotia and the Avalon Peninsula, according to Météomedia.
However, the abnormally warm waters in the Atlantic Ocean can also amplify storms and hurricanes which should be monitored until the second part of October.
Moreover, Environment Canada is closely monitoring the moment when Tropical Storm Lee is expected to make its turn towards the northwest and expects it to have an impact on the region by the weekend.
A deficit of precipitation which can favor fires in the West
The western provinces are expected to experience temperatures above seasonal norms due in particular to El Niño.
According to André Monette, it will be necessary to closely monitor “the risks of drought and fire in the first half of the season since precipitation will be close to or below normal over a majority of the territory.”