The electoral campaign is officially over in Kenya: the candidates threw their last strength into battle during the start of the weekend, ahead of the August 9 general election. The 22.1 million voters will have to vote six times to choose their president, but also their parliamentarians, governors and some 1,500 local elected officials. But all eyes are on the presidential election, whose two favorites are well-known figures on the Kenyan political scene.
On the one hand, William Ruto, 55, vice-president and number 2 of the regime for nearly a decade. And on the other, Raila Odinga, veteran of the opposition, candidate for the fifth time for the supreme magistracy. At 77, this election is probably his last chance to enter State House, the Kenyan presidential palace. Two other candidates are in the race: lawyers David Mwaure and George Wajackoyah, a former spy who wants to legalize cannabis. But, a priori, their only ambition is to take votes from the two headliners.
The polls announce a tight duel between Ruto and Odinga. “It’s very difficult to say who will win the election, it’s a coin toss for who will be the most emotionally attractive”says academic and analyst Macharia Munene to AFP.
Kenyans hold their breath. “There is a little worry in the air because it is a very uncertain election. Many are wondering, given the precedents, whether the candidates will accept the results, especially if they are very tight”, explains to franceinfo Africa Noé Michalon, correspondent in East Africa for the magazine AfricaIntelligence.
William Ruto, 55, has held the vice-presidency for nearly a decade and had been promised by incumbent President Uhuru Kenyatta to succeed him in 2022. But an unexpected alliance between Kenyatta and Odinga has sidelined him since 2018. For many observers, one of the reasons for this change of alliance is Ruto’s uncontrollable ambition. “What makes Ruto unique is the speed of his rise, his ambition”valued Kenyan political analyst Nerima Wako-Ojiwa.
After his re-election in 2017, which gave rise to violence causing dozens of deaths, President Kenyatta gradually moved closer to his historical opponent Raila Odinga, to whom he finally gave his support. Which somewhat disturbs his supporters: “Csome accuse him of having betrayed Ruto and as his record is not unanimously appreciated, this can put Raila Odinga in difficulty, whom he now supports”, notes Noé Michalon.
Ruto presents himself by opposing the “dynasties” embodied by Kenyatta and Odinga, heirs of two families at the heart of Kenyan politics since independence in 1963. He has made himself the herald of the “resourceful” (“hustlers” in English), from the streets like him who grew up in a modest family in the Rift Valley.
Sultry businessman who started from nothing, Ruto poses as a champion of the little people, promising them aid and jobs when three out of ten Kenyans live on less than 1.90 dollars a day, according to the World Bank. The theme of purchasing power has become major in this country of 55 million inhabitants shaken by the consequences of Covid-19, the war in Ukraine and a severe drought.
From the fight against the high cost of living to that against endemic corruption, there are many challenges awaiting the winner of the presidential election. Odinga has made the fight against corruption his priority, appointing Martha Karua, a former minister reputed to be inflexible, as running mate. The veteran of Kenyan politics also points to the ongoing legal proceedings against Ruto’s running mate, Rigathi Gachagua.
In this context, the economic issue could even, according to some experts, supplant this year the ethnic vote, a key factor that has always been in Kenyan voting booths. The victory of Ruto, a Kalenjin, or of Odinga, a Luo, will open a new page anyway after more than twenty years of Kikuyu presidency, the first and very influential community of the country.