Among the groups that Joe Biden will have to mobilize to defeat Donald Trump in November, voters aged 18 to 29 are one of the most unpredictable.
This week, in addition to the Trump circus, American news is dominated by the regulation of the TikTok network, the ceasefire in Gaza and the Supreme Court hearing on the restriction of the abortion pill.
In this election year, it should be noted that these three issues are at the heart of the concerns of young voters, a group that President Biden must win back to win in November.
A capricious electorate
Of all segments of the electorate, the 18- to 29-year-old group voted most strongly for Joe Biden in 2020. Exit polls put the advantage at around 25 to 30 percentage points. of Biden among young people, who were however more motivated to vote against Trump than for Biden.
Today, support for Trump has not changed much among young people, but polls show a drop in support for Joe Biden and a propensity of young people to opt for abstention or third parties.
Biden’s challenge is twofold. He must convince young people that a vote for a third party candidate is equivalent to a vote for Trump and against their interests. Above all, he must convince them to vote.
Clear choices
Biden’s strong support for Israel in the Gaza crisis has cost him dearly among young people. In the primary elections, many young people voted “not committed” to indicate their dissatisfaction and many are considering voting for a third party candidate in November.
It is unclear whether the shift toward a ceasefire will be enough to generate enthusiasm for Biden among young people concerned about the Palestinian cause. However, they seem to forget that Trump is ready to give carte blanche to Netanyahu and that he would welcome the banning of pro-Palestinian demonstrations on campuses.
On other issues dear to young people, such as access to abortion and reducing the debt burden of university graduates, the advantage is clearly in the Democratic camp, but the task of persuasion and mobilization does not. is no less arduous.
A major challenge
The problem of low voter turnout among young people is not unique to the United States, but in this country where voting is particularly expensive, the challenge is considerable.
The Biden campaign is trying to address this in particular by attempting, with modest success, to penetrate the rather unique world of social media like TikTok. It must be said that rumors of a ban on this extremely popular network do not help.
In terms of ideas, Democrats have the advantage among members of a generation largely won over to progressive ideals. One of the problems with idealists and progressives, however, is that they are rarely satisfied with the progress that realist politics achieves.
Among some young Americans, this attitude can lead to disenchantment, which pushes them toward abstention or third-party candidates. Disenchantment can also unfortunately lead to cynicism, which opens the door to Donald Trump’s ideological nihilism.